Can Putin Bring Out the True Potential of India-Russia Relations?
Vladimir Putin’s visit to New Delhi on December 6 indicates that the historic partnership between India and Russia remains strong and that both leaders remain committed to further building their partnership despite the differences in their respective ties to China and the United States.
Nikolay Kudashev, Russia’s ambassador to India, remarked in January 2020 that Russia does not “mix India and the US.” Even though this highlights the privileged and special nature of the partnership of India and Russia, the fact remains that China is to India what the United States is to Russia—a key deterrent to its strategic growth. In the face of the geostrategic challenge that China poses to India and the United States, and amidst Russia’s strong China connection, New Delhi’s “pointed alignment” foreign policy means that India will look to the United States as the partner state best able to fulfill national interests. A West-ward approach to the Indo-Pacific gives India a more reliable security umbrella. Therefore, India will choose to solidify links with the West and to build a more robust partnership with the United States as well as the Quad, rather than to establish closer ties with Russia.
Keeping this purview in perspective, Russia and India need to build character in the context of their outreach vis-à-vis Eurasia, the Indo-Pacific, and third-country cooperation in the Middle East as well as common security threat hotspots like Afghanistan. Their bilateral relationship must become truly independent of Russia’s China linkage—especially as India has already demonstrated via the S-400 deal that its link to the United States will not deter its attempts at securing its national security. Furthermore, Russia and India must build calculative chemistry wherein they draw from and support the other’s ventures. For instance, as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline running from Russia to Germany reaches completion despite hurdles from the United States, India’s own pipelines dreams, such as the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, the Iran-India undersea pipeline, and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India, remain unfulfilled. How Russia can emerge as a strong variable supporting the fulfillment of such ventures could greatly strengthen their energy cooperation. Moreover, amidst China’s fears of a closer Russian link with India, and U.S. fears of a deepening India-Russia relationship, Moscow and New Delhi can utilize the narrative to strategically improve their own ties with both powers.
A complementary versus contradictory angle with China defines a common ruling line for both India and Russia; such commonality can also build a stronger India-Russia partnership that seeks to advance their traditional partnership into a long-term comprehensive and future-driven venture.
Dr. Jagannath Panda is a Research Fellow and Centre Coordinator for East Asia at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. Dr. Panda is the Series Editor for Routledge Studies on Think Asia.
Image: Reuters.