A final thought is that this process might fit well with a larger rapprochement between Washington and Moscow as well. After all, a wise observation from the latter Chinese article discussed above is that Russia’s position on the Korean Crisis has been characterized by “a certain aloofness [一定的超然].” But as Russian East Asia expert Alexander Lukin writes in his 2015 book on Russia-China relations, “The Korean sides were led back from the brink thanks to the efforts of Russia and China [Благодаря усилиям России и Китая удалось отвести корейские стороны от опасной черты]” (p. 246). Lukin was discussing the 2010 crisis, but the same logic could apply to current circumstances, and may suggest a genuinely active role for the Kremlin.

Could President Putin be incentivized to play the hero (with ample Chinese and Japanese support) on the Korean Peninsula, by convincing Kim Jong-un to freeze his nuclear buildup and enter back into serious negotiations with the United States, if the Russian leader knew that economic sanctions on Russia would be lifted in return for this “good deed”? The Russian leader has East Asia on his mind as he goes about planning an important visit to Japan that will take place this month. Diplomats should seize on this opportunity to initiate a breakthrough that starts the process of stabilizing the volatile Korean Peninsula with potentially enormous benefits for the whole region, as well as the United States.

Lyle J. Goldstein is Associate Professor in the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, RI.  The opinions expressed in this analysis are his own and do not represent the official assessments of the U.S. Navy or any other agency of the U.S. Government.

Image: DPRK and Chinese flags at the Arirang Games. Flickr/Creative Commons/Roman Harak.