Lastly, the Kurds and Sunnis should demand that al-Maliki (or whoever the next PM designate is) deliver on his promises as a confidence-building measure before they vote in favor of his third term. They must retain leverage until the Prime Minister-to-be proves that he will follow through on his promises and share power. If he does not, opposition blocs should refuse to support his government and work to cobble together enough votes to oust him.

Iraq’s upcoming Parliamentary elections will be a true and tough test for the country. Sectarian strife and political paralysis threaten a rapid descent into civil war. The country’s leaders must learn from the 2010 elections and forge a workable political agreement that promotes power sharing. A long and drawn out government formation process that sidelines opposition parties risks Iraq’s democratic future and may result in the April elections being Iraq’s last. Learning the lessons of the failed 2010 Erbil Agreement is critical if Iraq is to survive the upcoming election and beyond.

Eli Sugarman is a Truman National Security Fellow and Senior Director at Gryphon Partners, an emerging markets firm. Omar Al-Nidawi, originally from Baghdad, Iraq, is Gryphon Partners' lead Iraq analyst.