A Different Path to Peace in the Middle East

A Different Path to Peace in the Middle East

The United States can play a central role in creating a multilateral effort to bring peace to Israel and Gaza.

Beyond the current darkness and suffering in the Israeli-Gaza conflict, if Hamas is removed from the picture, a brighter and healthier future becomes possible for many people and countries in the Middle East. This includes not just Israelis and Palestinians but other important regional powers. How to proceed following the war is not a simple question, and most commentaries tend to focus on the limited two-state solution, which has failed to find success for decades. Before any lasting peace is possible, the first critical issues to address are how to rebuild Gaza’s infrastructure and political systems, as well as what form those political systems will take.

Israel must take a leading role in any decisions and actions, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that Israel is planning to control the security situation in Gaza for the foreseeable future. However, Israel cannot take on this endeavor on its own and should not be expected to do so. Arab countries and many countries on the international stage have stated their commitment to and support for the Palestinians. However, neither Arab nations nor the broader world have actually taken real concrete steps to help the Palestinians, and, in fact, many have isolated, mistreated, and simply used them for propaganda purposes. If these nations are serious about their commitment, it will be time to put their money and concrete, hands-on assistance where their stated concerns and promises have been. In doing so, growing regional powers can not just help the Palestinians but help themselves as well.

The question of who should run and administer Gaza in the immediate aftermath of the conflict is not simple, though the question of who should run it in the longer term is more straightforward. In the short term, there are a few options. Israel plans to and may need to occupy Gaza, but that should be as temporary as possible, as this is a no-win situation for everyone. While on its face, the United Nations might seem a perfect body to take on such a task, given the lack of trust between Israel and the UN, the past inability of the UN to prevent conflict in the Middle East, and the feuds and posturing that have disabled the General Assembly and frozen the Security Council, this is not a promising choice. Instead, given the scale of the work to help Gaza, the best solution by far would be for Israel to work with a coalition of Arab countries, the United States, and, ideally, European nations that could provide oversight, manpower, ideas, aid, and accountability for all involved. This would ensure the needs and interests of all major parties are protected and that Gaza will get what it needs to thrive. In the Arab world, the most logical countries to take part would be Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain, Egypt, and Jordan. They have interests in the problem and may be open to considering opportunities for progress.

This would not be an easy coalition to build, but collaboration might be possible. There is concern, however, that Israel’s ground operation may be exactly what Hamas was hoping for. Hamas may believe it can start a wider conflict and defeat Israel, or at least that such a war would lead to greater destruction in Gaza, increase condemnation of Israel, damage Israeli relations with Arab states that have normalized relations with Israel, and halt normalization efforts with Saudi Arabia. This scenario is not likely if Israel can keep working with states such as Qatar, the UAE, Egypt, and Jordan because these countries benefit from continued relations with Israel and from contributing to solving the problems of Gaza. This is also true in regard to Saudi Arabia, as it and Israel have much to gain from a successful negotiation that includes but goes far beyond, the issues of Gaza. That is why discussions were taking place. Importantly, thus far, these nations have largely stayed fairly quiet. And during the current conflict, Qatar has already proven itself a highly valuable and important actor. It has been working behind the scenes, with some success, to secure the release of hostages.

The successful removal and destruction of Hamas opened new doors for normalization and enhanced ties among all of these nations. Saudi Arabia is already a key regional power and wishes to increase its status. Israel can offer Saudi Arabia the chance to do just that by gaining Saudi Arabia’s assistance in Gaza. Saudi Arabia can be offered a central role in shaping what happens next, from the start, in the design and implementation of a new governing structure and in the rebuilding process. This would offer a number of significant benefits to Saudi Arabia. One is that it would further cement its alliance with, and importance to, the United States. This could lead to further diplomatic and military support for Saudi Arabia from Washington. It also offers the chance for Saudi Arabia to show Arab populations that it is the primary defender of Arab rights and needs, thus greatly enhancing its influence in the Arab world. Thereby, Saudi Arabia would protect and promote its interests in a more effective manner.

For Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, there are compelling reasons to become involved in this effort, as well. Taking part will help them continue to enhance their status and, in the case of Bahrain and the UAE, will cement relations with Israel further, produce another regional ally in a new and functional Palestinian state, and forge closer ties with the United States. This can help boost all their economies and provide access to high technology. Israel has made its cyber prowess and its other high technology a cornerstone of its commercial and military success and its diplomacy. Its neighbors can benefit from collaborations in these realms. Egypt and Jordan, in particular, can benefit from substantial changes in the condition of the Palestinians. In Jordan’s case, the country is roughly half Palestinian, and they have not been integrated into the country successfully, as illustrated by the fact that large refugee camps remain in its territory. Egypt controls a portion of the border with Gaza and has been blockading Gaza, along with Israel. Egypt fears immigration from Gaza. It is concerned that the current conflict there may destabilize the region and lead to an influx of migrants into the Sinai.

Defeating Hamas and stabilizing Gaza will further isolate Iran, which would be a significant benefit to other Middle Eastern countries. Iran, which has close ties to Hamas and supports its destructive actions, would lose a key ally in its efforts to gain a greater foothold in the Middle East at the expense of other Middle East nations. In recent months, there has been a notable improvement in relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but that would not have to change if Saudi Arabia took a leading role in helping Gaza. Saudi Arabia and Iran can only go so far towards normalization as significant tensions and conflicts of interest between Iran and Saudi Arabia will remain. Each sees itself as a regional leader and power. They are deeply religious states, separated by their devotion to different branches of Islam, Sunni and Shia, and are both oil exporters. They will compete for dominance in the Middle East.

The sooner a multinational collaborative process can start, the sooner violence can be reduced and ended, and building can begin. The Palestinians themselves must, of course, have a central role, most logically initially through the Palestinian Authority. In addition, each interested Arab nation should be involved in discussions of a new configuration for Palestine. Working together, Israel, the Palestinians, and the coalition partners can also help to ensure that new dangerous movements do not arise and take control in Gaza. While ceding significant control to outside powers poses dangers to Israel, the benefits, if done right, outweigh the risks. Further, with the United States playing a central role, Israel will have a powerful ally helping to ensure a stable and more peaceful outcome. That outcome will not be the limited two-state solution of an Israeli and a Palestinian state living side by side. It will be a much more integrated coalition of Israeli and Arab actors working together.

The United States can play a central role in convincing each nation to participate. It is in a unique position of being able to pressure each of the countries involved. The United States should make clear to each of them, including Israel and the Palestinians themselves, that refusing to participate in good faith will have significant costs in terms of diplomatic support, economic opportunities, and humanitarian or military assistance. Arab nations can also make the same case to the Palestinians. Israel and its Arab neighbors all have important ways they could offer incentives or threats to encourage participation.

Getting to this point will not be easy. To make this possible, and for moral reasons, Israel must take every step possible to mitigate and, whenever possible, avoid the suffering of the citizens of Gaza. Israel must continue to take steps to avoid civilian casualties. Civilian casualties harm normalization efforts and decrease support for Israel around the world, not just in the Arab and Muslim world. Further, Israel must immediately and urgently work with Egypt to find a way to safely allow more Gazans impacted by the war a path to safety. Discussions are underway, but Egypt has been reticent to provide more than limited help. A key step has been figuring out ways to get greater aid into Gaza while ensuring Hamas cannot access such supplies. Along with the moral imperative, if Israel takes appropriate steps to protect the citizens of Gaza, that will go a long way towards building trust and gaining cooperation from its Arab neighbors.