3. Ukraine’s reconstruction. Ukraine has suffered colossal damage. On the basis of geography and because of Ukraine’s projected EU membership, Europe is the natural lead for the massive reconstruction effort that will be required. Additionally, although the American private sector has already shown signs of interest—and here, we may expect a Trump administration to excel—a key negotiating point should be Russia’s contribution to Ukraine’s reconstruction, given the enormity and brutality of the destruction they caused. As part of the settlement of the conflict, in the discussion of the future of sanctions against Russia, a portion of the frozen Russian assets might be allocated to reconstruction.

4. Russia’s diplomatic standing. For Russia, an essential motivation in agreeing to any Ukrainian settlement will be the benefits of future relations with the West and particularly with the United States. Russian diplomats consistently complain that “because of Ukraine,” the United States has refused to engage in discussion of critical matters such as the Middle East, Europe’s security architecture, and nuclear, missile, cyber, and space issues. Some may find this surprising. Consequently, we must understand and not underestimate the extent to which Russia’s leadership still values relations with the United States. They have signaled that in exchange for an agreed-upon road map for better mutual relations, they would be more flexible on terms for a settlement in Ukraine. A future Trump administration should play this card astutely.

The United States has significant leverage over both Russia and Ukraine. A new administration has an opportunity to use that leverage effectively. The discussion, analysis, and debate on settlement options and how best to pursue them should start now. 

Zalmay Khalilzad is the former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. Follow him on X: @realzalmayMK.

Image: Drop of Light / Shutterstock.com.