This Is How Trump Can Successfully Navigate the China Trade Trap
Trump cannot let his administration be bought off by Beijing’s initial concessions if he wants to reverse years of American failure in pressing China to change its economic practices.
It is too early to know if Trump will in fact be able to press China to agree to major reforms. Much will depend on his team’s diplomatic and negotiating skills, and on Trump checking instincts that often lead him to alienate allies. There is a definite risk that even a measured strategy could spiral out of control. A too-quick U.S. escalation, or an overreaction by America’s trading partners, could transform a strategy intended to secure reforms from Beijing into a trade war that leaves both America and its trading partners worse off. But if Trump outlines clear, tough U.S. negotiating goals and convinces allies to join with the United States, then his more aggressive approach just might begin pushing Beijing towards the type of better trade deal that two decades of American policy have failed to achieve.
Peter Harrell is an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, and also a lawyer in private practice. He previously served at the U.S. State Department in the Economic and Business Affairs Bureau and, prior to that, on the State Department's Policy Planning Staff.
Image: Reuters
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