Despite being a legitimate issue of concern for the United States, the probability of North Korea selling nuclear materials to outside actors remains extremely low, as such an undertaking would put at risk the regime security and economic relationship with China that serve as paramount priorities to Kim Jong-un. The logistical difficulties, lack of available buyers, immense risks, and minimal benefits associated with such a sale should serve as sufficient deterrent to prevent North Korea from adopting the role of a nuclear arms dealer. While future events could certainly alter North Korea’s decision calculus on this question, the current risk of North Korea engaging in nuclear arms sales is insufficient to justify preventive military action targeting the North Korean nuclear program.

Matt Reisener is a program associate at the Center for the National Interest.