The irony is that Beijing would run no great political risk; a pro-democracy candidate would almost certainly lose a free election. Hong Kong’s livelihood requires ever-closer ties to mainland entities, and its pragmatic citizens would never choose a chief executive who might have testy relations with leaders in Beijing. But taking any risk is not part of the ruling party’s ethos, and allowing such a compromise would require more tolerance, self-confidence and common sense than its leaders have shown to date.

Robert Keatley is a former editor of the Asian Wall Street Journal and the South China Morning Post of Hong Kong.

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