Trump Could Make an FDR-Style Grand Bargain with Russia

Trump Could Make an FDR-Style Grand Bargain with Russia

In Syria and elsewhere, America needs Russia’s help.

Since 2011, Syria has seen a military strategy known as the “operation room” (ghurfat amaliyat). In most cases, when these battlefield alliances are formed, the most radical groups are the strongest (Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, etc.) and therefore able to pressure the weaker, more “secular” ones. Thus, Russia has targeted groups that are considered part of the U.S.-backed “moderate opposition,” because many of these weaker groups have been highly influenced by Jabhat al-Nusra, Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, the most powerful force in the opposition after ISIS. Right now, the third-strongest force is led by Ahrar al-Sham, the other Salafist group in Syria, whose former leader had recently defected to Nusra (otherwise known as the Jabhat Fatah al-Sham). While Trump may not know the name of every single group in Syria, he understands the context that gave rise to the Russian strategy, and has often questioned the nature of the rebels backed by the United States.

For nearly two years, I have argued for the United States and Russia to exchange intelligence because of the grave dangers that these militant groups pose to the national security of the West. The Russians, through Assad, have people on the ground, an essential ingredient for intelligence gathering. For FDR and Stalin, intelligence sharing was crucial: indeed, the United Kingdom and United States shared their ULTRA and MAGIC information with the Soviets—of course without revealing the sources—starting in 1941. Stalin reciprocated with various gestures, such as allowing the Americans to use bases in Ukraine for bombing operations. Chuck Schumer recently said that if you give someone like Putin an inch he will take ten miles. This is wise advice—but if you give him the right strategic inch, he might give you ten miles in return.

While the relationship between FDR's America and Stalin's Russia was not perfect, with plenty of room for criticism and praise, it is without a doubt that Franklin D. Roosevelt showed a great interest in an alliance with Russia—yet his death, the heavy influence of U.S. diplomatic and bureaucratic officials on Harry S. Truman, and the fact that Moscow was at the height of its powers by the end of World War II marked the end of those ambitions. We will have to wait and see what happens with President Trump and Russia.

Carlo J. V. Caro has an M.S. in Security Studies and an M.A. in Islamic Studies from Columbia University. He researches U.S. Foreign Policy and Terrorism.

Image: Joseph Stalin and Franklin Delano Roosevelt at the Tehran Conference. Wikimedia Commons/U.S. Army