Turkey Has Turned Itself Into a Terrorist Target
The terrorist threat is bound to remain significant, and various factors will likely impact the Turkish security situation.
Therefore, the most likely scenario involves a stronger and more stable security situation in most of Turkey. In contrast, a minor conflict could crystallize in the southeast of the country with no prospects for reconciliation. This could lead to moderate economic recovery in the coming years (thanks to a greater inflow of tourists and foreign investment) and allow Erdoğan to win the next presidential election and remain in power for several more years.
Daniele Grassi is senior Analyst at IFI Advisory, a consulting firm specializing in corporate security management.
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