The Turkish government would settle for a multicultural order in Mosul, whereby Sunni Arabs would rule the city but the KRG would act as a conduit for transmitting natural resources through Turkey. This would represent an ideal formula that would meet Turkish political and economic interests. However, the upcoming military operation has already created a number of complications for Ankara. First, Baghdad, Tehran and above all Washington seem to oppose the involvement of Turkish forces in Mosul. Second, the Turkish-led military camp in Bashiqa, fifty kilometers north of Mosul, for training Sunni and KRG forces, which would also participate in the Mosul operation, has turned into a controversial issue after pro-Iranian Badr forces, Shia clerics and later Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi himself threatened Turkey to back down. This is unsurprisingly setting the stage for a harsher Turkish response against the Iraqi government. Turkey would in any case stay alert to check whether the prospective liberation of Mosul undermines its interests, i.e., the presence of Shia militias in the campaign and possible spillover of the campaign to the Turkmen city of Tel Afar. All in all, there is an inherent domestic element of the conflict in Iraq, which ordains maintaining the delicate balances between the Kurds, Sunnis, Turkmen and Shia.

Against this shaky background, Turkish thinking to ensure a manageable status quo—which would maintain the territorial integrity of Syria and Iraq, curb Kurdish aspirations for separatism, and lay the groundwork for sustainable political transition—appears overambitious. Yet, in any case, Turkey’s feedback and support for the restoration of a semblance of order in Syria and Iraq is crucial. Degrading ISIS, which currently seems possible, should not give rise to new cleavages in the Sunni-Shia, Sunni-Kurdish and Shia-Kurdish conflicts. Kurdish ambitions for independence should also be weighed against regional balances. Overall, a visionary approach that would integrate regional and global interests is needed to overcome the multivector conflicts in Syria and Iraq.

Bülent Aras is Professor of International Relations at Sabanci University and Global Fellow at the Wilson Center.

Image: An Iraqi soldier attending the advanced infantry course provides security during chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear defense training at Camp Taji, Iraq. DVIDSHUB/Public domain