The commander of U.S. Strategic Command, Adm. Charles Richard, has warned that China will double or triple its nuclear forces within a decade, an explosive and “breathtaking” growth. When taken into account, the entirety of the evidence is that China may have within two to four years a nuclear force between 2,500-4,200 warheads. In other words, nuclear weapons upward of 270 percent of the entire U.S.-deployed strategic nuclear force. China says it is not in an arms race and its nuclear weapons are only for self-defense. But in July 2021, a video on a Chinese government military website showed the Chinese claiming, “When we liberate Taiwan, if Japan dares to intervene, we will use nuclear bombs first. We will use nuclear bombs continuously until Japan declares unconditional surrender for the second time.”  

As for Russia, it is still the premier nuclear threat to the United States. In April 2021, Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based defense analyst, wrote that Russia may have double the number of nuclear weapons in the rest of the world combined. Various estimates of Russian strategic nuclear weapons post-New START indicate that anywhere from 4,500 to 8,000, including both long- and short-range, strategic, and theater nuclear weapons, exist. These weapons will be deployed on twenty-two new types of nuclear platforms put into service since the 2010 treaty was signed by Moscow and Washington.  

When added to the Chinese projected level, the combined warhead total would approach the peak level of deployed nuclear weapons by the Soviet Union. More frightening is that as Mark Schneider, a senior analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy, explained at the 2021 Task Force Triad Symposium, Moscow’s threshold is lower for employing nuclear military force in a conflict—a path China may also be following.  

The pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons is part of Russia’s strategy, specifically the threat to use a limited number of nuclear weapons in an “escalate to win” and secure U.S. acquiescence to Russian aggression. This strategy is unique among all world nuclear-armed countries, according to Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, the former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency.

U.S. conventional deterrent strategy assumes no use of nuclear force. The United States has to strengthen its nuclear deterrent capability to ensure that threshold is never broken. That way, if the United States is called upon to fight, its forces will prevail and the nuclear peace sustained.  

Peter Huessy is the director of Strategic Deterrent Studies at the Mitchell Institute.  

Image: Flickr.