Summary and Key Points: Despite Ukraine's recent incursions into Russian territory, Russian forces remain on the offensive along the central and southern parts of the contact line, particularly in the Donbas region. Russian advances are focused on key logistical hubs like Pokrovsk and Toretsk, aiming to weaken Ukrainian defenses gradually.

-Although Russia lacks the capability for large-scale, coordinated offensives, they continue to make tactical gains through costly, infantry-led assaults.

-Meanwhile, Russian forces are sustaining significant casualties, with over 1,000 losses reported in the past 24 hours, alongside the destruction of various military assets, including tanks, artillery, and a helicopter.

Ukraine Faces Pressure as Russian Forces Target Key Donbas Hubs

Despite the surprise Ukrainian foray within Russia, the Russian military continues to be on the offensive along several parts of the contact line.

Although the Russian forces can’t punch through the Ukrainian defenses, they certainly can gradually weaken them.

Russian Offensives in the Donbas

For the time being, the Russian military maintains active pressure in the central and southern parts of the contact line.

“Russian Ground Forces have continued conducting offensive operations along multiple areas of the frontline with Russia achieving further tactical advances,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.

“The focus of Russian operations certainly remains in central Donetsk oblast. Recent advances have brought the city of Pokrovsk within approximately 16km [about 10 miles] from the current frontline,” the British Military Intelligence added.

Pokrovsk is a key logistical hub for the Ukrainian military. The city supports offensive and defensive operations in the wider Donetsk area. A potential loss would seriously frustrate the operations of the Ukrainian forces and would make a future counteroffensive in the region much harder to succeed in.

“Russia has also continued to make gains in the contested town of Niu York and its advances in the area are threatening the town of Toretsk,” the British Military Intelligence stated.

Although not as important as Pokrovsk, Toretsk opens the way to capturing Kostiantynivka, another important logistical hub in the area.

“Russia continues to rely on costly infantry-led assaults to make gradual advances into Ukrainian territory,” the British Military Intelligence concluded.

As we have described here at The National Interest, the Russian military lacks the requisite combat power and capability to launch a complex, coordinated, large-scale offensive that could result in an operational breakthrough. The Kremlin lacks both the necessary weapon systems and sufficiently trained troops to achieve such outcomes. As a result, the Russian military is forced to use small-scale human wave attacks against the Ukrainian positions. Although these assaults are irrelevant in isolation, added together in a small part of the contact line, they can have results. To be sure, it’s only tactical successes, but they steadily add up to create gradual advances.

Right now, it seems like a game of who will blink first and relocate forces to deal with the growing emergency. Ukraine has committed at least two experienced brigades to the foray inside Russia, and the Russian military has hundreds of thousands of troops in Ukraine.

Russian Casualties in Ukraine: Update 

Meanwhile, the Russian forces continue to suffer heavy casualties in the fighting. According to the latest estimates of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, over the past twenty-four hours, the Russian military and pro-Russian separatist forces lost approximately 1,030 men killed, wounded, and captured, as well as eighty-six tactical vehicles and fuel trucks, forty-nine artillery pieces and multiple launch rocket systems, thirty-two unmanned aerial systems, nine infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, three main battle tanks, two air defense systems, two pieces of special equipment, and one helicopter.

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.