Summary and Key Points You Need to Know: In August, Ukraine surprised many by invading Russia's Kursk Oblast, quickly advancing and capturing several settlements. The operation aimed to force Russia to divert troops from Ukraine to defend its own territory, thereby easing pressure on Ukrainian forces. However, the move risks overextending Ukraine's military.

-Meanwhile, Russian forces are advancing toward the key Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, threatening to disrupt Ukrainian logistics in the Donbas.

-The situation has become a high-stakes gamble, with both sides waiting to see who will blink first: Ukraine pulling back to reinforce Donbas, or Russia diverting more troops to protect Kursk.

Ukraine's Bold Move into Kursk: High Stakes in the War's Next Phase

In early August, the Ukrainian military wrestled the operational initiative from its Russian adversary by invading the Kursk Oblast.

The move was greeted with surprise and applause from Ukrainians and most of Kyiv’s international partners. 

In a matter of a few days, Ukrainian forces drove tens of miles deep into Russia and captured one settlement after another, imposing heavy casualties on the Russians. 

However, the move might prove too risky. 

Advancing Toward Pokrovsk 

“Russian Ground Forces (RGF) have accelerated their advance towards the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk over the last seven days,” British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest operational update on the war. 

According to the latest data, Russian forces are likely within six miles of the outer edges of the city. 

The denser urban setting as the Russians near the city will slow their advance and allow the Ukrainians to defend much more easily. But were the city to fall into Russian hands, the operations of the Ukrainian military in the Donbas – a key part of the battlefield – would be seriously disrupted. 

“Pokrovsk serves as a key logistics hub for the Donetsk Oblast and, if taken, is likely to lengthen and divert existing Ukrainian supply lines. This will likely make it more difficult for Ukrainian Armed Forces to resupply and manoeuvre resources quickly to several key strongholds between Chasiv Yar and Vuhledar,” British Military Intelligence stated. 

By invading Russia, the Ukrainian leadership took a gamble. The ultimate goal wasn’t to capture and annex Russian land. Rather, the objective was to create such a threatening and humiliating situation for the Russian military, forcing the Kremlin to draw troops from the contact line in Ukraine to deal with the threat. (The latest estimates put the number of Russian troops in Ukraine, including the Crimean Peninsula, at between 400,000 and 500,000.) As a result,  Ukrainian forces in Ukraine would have an easier time defending. In addition, Kyiv would have some bargaining power in the form of captured Russian land in the event of negotiations. 

Although the Russian military did pull troops from the contact line in Ukraine and urgently sent them to Kursk Oblast, it did so from the quieter parts of the battlefield. This is reflected in the overall operational picture.

“The operational tempo of military activity has remained low on all other frontlines in eastern and southern Ukraine with no major significant changes in territorial control,” British Military Intelligence concluded. 

Right now, the situation resembles a contest of who will blink first. Will the Ukrainian military, which has limited mechanized reserves, abandon the foray into Russia and reinforce its positions in the Donbas? Or will the Russian military be forced to relocate more forces back to Russia and ease he pressure around Pokrovsk? 

The next few days will reveal a lot about the course of the war. 

About the Author: 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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