The Russian forces continue to make tactical gains in the direction of Pokrovsk, in the Donbas.

A key point on the Ukrainian defensive line, Pokrovsk is a logistical hub that supports both offensive and defensive operations in the region. The Russian forces have been trying to capture it for months, throwing tens of thousands of troops and thousands of heavy weapon systems against it.

The Fight for Pokrovsk

“Russian forces are gradually advancing south and southwest of Pokrovsk, but it remains unclear if Russian forces will be able to exploit these gains to envelop the town or if they intend to advance to the administrative boundary of Donetsk Oblast,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate of the war in Ukraine.

One of Russia’s main claims in the war is that the Donetsk Oblast should gain its independence (alongside Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea Oblasts) and secede from Ukraine.  

“It remains unclear which effort the Russian military command will prioritize, as Russian President Vladimir Putin may have tasked the Russian military with securing territorial gains rather than seizing significant settlements,” the Institute for the Study of War added.

But capturing Pokrovsk might not be the Russian military’s ultimate goal. With the prospect of peace negotiations in the background, it is likely that the Kremlin wants more land to strengthen its bargaining power.

“Putin appears to be increasingly characterizing Russian advances in terms of square kilometers instead of highlighting the seizure of particular settlements as he had previously done. Putin may have instructed the Russian military command to delay the seizure of Pokrovsk in favor of making further gains through open fields and small settlements, particularly as Russian forces advance closer to the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative boundary,” the Institute for the Study of War added.

Based in Washington, DC, the think tank has been providing timely and critical analysis on the strategic, operational, and tactical developments of the conflict.

Russian Casualties

Meanwhile, the Russian forces continue to take heavy losses on the ground. Over the past twenty-four hours, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces had approximately 1,630 troops killed or wounded in the fighting. In addition, the Russian forces lost approximately forty-seven tactical vehicles and fuel trucks, forty-four unmanned aerial systems, thirty infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, ten artillery pieces and multiple launch rocket launchers, nine main battle tanks, and three pieces of special equipment.

Overall, the Russian forces have lost almost 780,000 troops in the fighting, with approximately 200,000 killed and 580,000 wounded. These casualties reveal the reality of Putin’s disastrous decision to invade Ukraine.

The Russian leader believed that his “special military operation” would last for three days to two weeks. Putin was convinced that his forces would sweep through Ukraine, while a friendly Ukrainian people would welcome them with open arms and flowers. Well, there were arms, but of a different kind than what Putin and his Kremlin advisers expected.

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

Image: Jose HERNANDEZ Camera 51 / Shutterstock.com