China’s position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to drive speculation.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in February that Russia appeared to have China’s tacit approval for an invasion in February. However, public statements from Chinese officials have not expressed overt support for Russia. China has advocated for a “peaceful solution,” but has done little beyond that.

“What we have not seen them do is being willing to sanction Russia, like so much of the rest of the international community, to condemn what the Russians are doing inside Ukraine,” an unnamed senior defense official said on Wednesday. “And for all their bluster about wanting to see a peaceful outcome here, they've done nothing to propose or suggest or show an interest in becoming involved in any kind of diplomatic solution here.”

The exact level of cooperation between Russia and China remains unknown. The New York Times, citing unnamed sources in the Biden administration, reported this week that China asked Russia to hold its invasion after the Beijing Winter Olympics concluded. China denied that report. The unnamed Pentagon official was unable to confirm that report.

China was one of thirty-five countries to abstain from a vote in the UN General Assembly that would have condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Only five countries, including Russia and Belarus, opposed the resolution, while one hundred forty-one voted in favor.

“China continues to send mixed messages out here about their concerns over what's going on in Ukraine,” the unnamed senior defense official said.

China’s decision to not impose sanctions on Russia could be seen as a form of cooperation. As civilian casualties continue to rise, however, international pressure on China could increase.

Conversely, deepening cooperation between China and Russia is a growing concern for the United States and its allies. Any kind of military alliance between Russia and China in which either country pledged military support would be of great concern to the United States given the extent of the threats presented by each country. Perhaps in thinking he had support from China, Putin estimated that he would withstand the international condemnation? He may not have anticipated the international reaction would be as strong as it appears to be. 

Kris Osborn is the Defense Editor for the National Interest. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Master's Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.

Image: Reuters.