Representatives of Sweden’s ruling Social Democratic Party announced on Monday that the country’s decision on whether or not to join NATO would be announced on May 15—a development that, if made in the affirmative, could decisively change Sweden’s foreign policy posture after more than 200 years of neutrality.

Sweden’s deliberations over NATO began after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, a move widely regarded in Europe as an offensive war waged by Russian leader Vladimir Putin for the purpose of installing a pro-Kremlin government in Kyiv. The ongoing war led Sweden and neighboring Finland, both of which remained neutral between the West and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, to reconsider their security postures.

Although early reporting suggested that Sweden and Finland could make their decisions on NATO membership simultaneously, the Finnish government later indicated that it would release its decision on May 12. Finnish president Sauli Niinisto is widely expected to announce support for a NATO application.

Although nearly all of Sweden’s major political parties—ranging from the Social Democrats to the far-right Sweden Democrats, with the exception of the left-wing Left Party and Green Party—have endorsed a NATO application, the Swedish government has not yet hinted at its decision. Social Democratic party secretary Tobias Baudin told Sweden’s SR radio station on Monday that a decision had not yet been made.

“Our message is that on May 15 there will be a decision for the party leadership to take a position on,” Baudin said, suggesting that the government’s decision would be made by that date. The Riksdag, Sweden’s parliament, is scheduled to hold a private review of the country’s security policy on May 13, during which deliberations over NATO are sure to occur.

“I want to have that [the review] on the table before I make a decision,” Swedish prime minister Magdalena Andersson said during a television broadcast on Sunday.

If Sweden decides to pursue NATO membership, the country would formally apply to enter the alliance at NATO’s summit in Madrid in June. Although the bureaucratic process—ensuring inter-military compatibility between Swedish and NATO forces—is likely to be shortened, securing the approval of all NATO member states is still expected to take up to a year.

Swedish entry into NATO is also likely to antagonize Russia, which has hinted that it might place nuclear missiles in its Kaliningrad exclave along the Baltic Sea in response to such a development.

Trevor Filseth is a current and foreign affairs writer for the National Interest.

Image: Reuters.