What You Need to Know: September 2024 marked one of the deadliest months for Russian forces in Ukraine, with an average of 1,271 casualties per day, surpassing previous monthly records.

-British Military Intelligence corroborated Ukrainian reports, estimating over 648,000 Russian casualties since the war began.

-The conflict, now spanning into Kharkiv and Kursk, remains intense, with Russian forces using mass assaults despite heavy losses. Both sides continue to endure significant casualties, making this the deadliest European conflict since World War II.

Russian Casualties Reach Record Highs in September 2024 Amidst Intensified Fighting

September was one of the deadliest months for the Russian military and the month with the highest daily average of casualties since the war began on February 24, 2022.  

On average, the Russian forces lost almost 1,300 men killed and wounded every day.  

The Heaviest Casualties  

In its latest estimate on the course of the war, the British Military Intelligence verified with much of our analysis here at The National Interest regarding the extremely heavy losses the Russian forces are taking every day.  

“The average daily Russian casualties, killed and wounded, in Ukraine reached a new monthly war high during September 2024,” the British Military Intelligence assessed.  

On average, the Russian forces lost 1,271 men killed and wounded every day. That number was a slight increase from the previous war high of 1,262 average daily losses in May. These data are based on the reporting of the Ukrainian General Staff, which are once more corroborated by the West.  

“Since the start of the conflict Russia has likely suffered over 648,000 casualties,” the British Military Intelligence added.  

At the current rate, the Russian forces will almost certainly exceed the 700,000 casualty mark before the year is out. Overall, it is likely that casualties on both sides have exceeded one million, making the conflict the deadliest state-on-state war on European soil since the end of World War Two.  

“The increase in the casualty rate since May 2024 is almost certainly due to the extension of the combat zone to include both Kharkiv and Kursk military operations, and increased intensity along the frontline,” the British Military Intelligence added. 

In the summer, the Russian military launched a large-scale offensive against Kharkiv in an attempt to restrict Ukraine’s second-largest urban center. Then, in August, the Ukrainian military responded by invading Russia in the Kursk Oblast and opening a second front. The Ukrainian forces have captured hundreds of square kilometers of territory and scores of settlements inside Russia.  

“Russian forces highly likely continue to attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces by utilizing mass to overwhelm defensive positions and achieve tactical gains,” the British Military Intelligence assessed. 

Such Russian tactics are largely the reason for the Kremlin’s extremely heavy casualties. Russian commanders throw their men against the Ukrainian fortifications without much consideration for their livelihood.  

“Russia’s casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day for the rest of 2024 despite the onset of winter. To date, winter conditions have not resulted in a reduction of offensive operations or attrition rates due to Russia’s reliance on dismounted tactics and a lack of maneuver warfare, which requires better conditions,” the British Military Intelligence concluded.  

To be sure, the Ukrainians are also taking losses and are facing challenges in maintaining a robust defensive line. After more than two years of fighting, Kyiv had to withdraw from the strategic town of Vuhledar in the Donbas. The Ukrainian military is likely seeking better conditions and increased Russian fatigue before it strikes back.  

About the Author: 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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