Summary and Key Points: Ukraine's aspiration to join NATO faces significant hurdles due to ongoing hostilities with Russia. Article 5 of NATO's charter, which mandates collective defense, makes Ukraine's membership improbable while the conflict continues, as it would draw NATO into direct conflict with Russia.

-Despite U.S. support for Ukraine's future in NATO, the alliance must avoid immediate war involvement.

-Ukraine’s potential NATO membership remains a distant prospect, especially amid Russian threats and the unresolved conflict in Crimea and Donbas.

Ukraine’s NATO Ambitions: The Impact of Ongoing Conflict with Russia

Ukraine has been looking to join NATO for some time now. The prospect of a common defense pact with a superpower like the United States and military giants like France and the United Kingdom is very tempting indeed. However, that prospect of common defense makes Ukraine’s desire to join NATO unlikely for the time being.

Indeed, Ukraine all but certainly won’t be able to join the transatlantic alliance as long as hostilities with Russia continue.

Ukraine in NATO

Ukraine has been looking to join NATO for some years now. Yet what stands in its way is also the main reason why it wants to become the 33rd NATO member state—Article 5.

Article 5, or the common defense clause, requires every NATO country to come to the aid of another NATO country under attack by a state or non-state actor. It is not an automatic reaction, the transatlantic alliance would have to assess the situation first, but it is almost certain that NATO would respond to a credible threat.

For example, the U.S. invoked Article 5 after the September 11 terrorist attacks against the World Trade Center by al-Qaida, and the transatlantic alliance responded by sending troops into Afghanistan.

On the other hand, when a suspected Russian munition exploded in Poland in November 2023, killing two people, NATO assessed the situation and came to the conclusion that it was, in fact, an errand Ukrainian air defense missile and thus didn’t come to the aid of Poland against Russia.

"The President believes firmly that NATO is in Ukraine's future at some point," U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said in a recent press conference.

But that future is still some way off.

"First, they got to win this war. We are doing everything we can to make sure they can do that," Kirby added.

Ukraine can’t join NATO until the war is over because it would immediately draw NATO into the conflict.

Indeed, even before the full-scale Russian invasion that began on February 24, 2022, Ukraine wouldn’t be eligible to join the transatlantic alliance. It is oft forgotten in daily heavy fighting in Ukraine that Moscow first invaded its neighbor in 2014 with the surprise invasion and illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. Soon thereafter, a small-scale, insurgency-type fighting broke out in the Donbas between pro-Russian separatist forces—supported overtly and covertly by the Kremlin—and the Ukrainian military. That small-scale conflict would qualify for Article 5 support.

"When the war is over, no matter what it looks like, they still have a long border with Russia and a legitimate security threat to the Ukrainian people,” the U.S. national security official stated.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kremlin officials continue to indicate that should Kyiv make a move to join the transatlantic alliance, a nuclear strike might follow. With Putin’s unstable logic in the past few years, that is not an empty threat.

Kyiv has hopes that NATO’s upcoming July summit in Washington will produce concrete progress, even an open invitation to join the transatlantic alliance. However, that is extremely unlikely.

About the Author: Biography and Military Expertise 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

All images are Creative Commons. 

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