Just days into the New Year, Kyiv launched a fresh offensive in the Russian Kursk Oblast, reportedly catching the Kremlin's forces off guard on Sunday. According to commentary from social media, columns of Ukrainian armored vehicles advanced toward the village of Bolshoe Soldatskoe, after clearing mines overnight.

Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute shared images of the Ukrainian forces on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, citing commentary from pro-Kremlin military bloggers. Lee posted, "Some Russian channels have been warning recently of a Ukrainian build up near Kursk and a potential offensive."

Fierce fighting had occurred throughout the weekend with dozens of engagements. However, the size of the operation remains unclear.

"Ukrainian and Western military analysts said that the attacks could be a deliberate attempt at misdirection, trying to force Russian troops to shore up defenses there in the hopes of weakening them on the front line in Ukrainian territory," The New York Times reported.

The paper of record added, "Although Ukraine now holds less than half of the territory it seized in the Kursk offensive last summer, it has managed in recent weeks to slow Russia's advances despite repeated waves of Russian counterattacks, including assaults bolstered by thousands of North Korean soldiers."

Kyiv's invasion of Kursk, which began last August, was the first ground invasion into Russia since World War II. It caught the Kremlin largely off guard, and despite repeated counteroffensives, Ukraine has managed to maintain a foothold in the Russian Oblast. The counteroffensive has been seen as a major embarrassment for Russia.

General Winter is Engaged

Throughout history, armies have often hunkered down during the winter—but that hasn't always been the case in Russia, where both sides have taken advantage of the frozen ground.

The current offensive serves as a reminder of the First Winter Campaign that the Ukrainian People's Republic (UPR) carried out against the Bolsheviks during the Ukrainian-Soviet War in late 1919 and early 1920. The campaign, which has earned comparisons to General George Washington's raid on Trenton on December 26, 1776, had a similar impact. It raised the spirit of the UPR's forces when it needed it most.

This new offensive could have a similar result.

"The Russians in Kursk are experiencing great anxiety because they were attacked from several directions and it came as a surprise to them," Ukraine's top counter-disinformation official Andriy Kovalenko wrote on the Telegram social messaging app.

Kyiv may need to show that it isn't out of the fight and the rumors of its impending defeat are being greatly exaggerated.  As the BBC also reported, "Kyiv's forces are reportedly suffering from manpower shortages and have been losing ground in the east of Ukraine in recent months, as Russian troops advance."

Taking the fight to Russia won't deliver a knock-out blow, but it could show the Ukrainian people—and the West—that the Kremlin hasn't won yet. The timing of the attack came just over two weeks before President-elect Donald Trump is set to take office. He has vowed to end the war quickly, without explaining how he will do so but most believe it would involve pulling U.S. support while encouraging Kyiv to cede territory to Moscow.

It was in October that U.S. military analyst Michael Kofman suggested that Russia's numbers advantage could significantly diminish in 2025 —which helps explain why Moscow has had to turn to North Korea to bolster its numbers. Given that fact, Ukraine may be seeking to gain ground should it be forced to the peace table.

A Truly Cold War

As previously reported, winter has long been one of the greatest allies of the Russian people. Known as "General Winter" or "General Frost," cold harsh weather has been credited with helping defeat foreign invaders.

The cold had played a significant role in the Swedish invasion of 1707, the French invasion under Napoleon in 1812, the Allied intervention in Russia in 1918-1919, and most notably, the German invasion in 1941. However, the cold also aided Kyiv in the late winter of 2022 after Russia launched its unprovoked invasion—and it may now be helping Ukraine in its current offensive operations in Kursk.

It is also likely that the attack was mounted before the spring and the arrival of the "Rasputitsa," the Russian term for the late fall and early spring seasons of the year when travel on unpaved roads across the vast open plains becomes difficult.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].

Image Credit: Seneline / Shutterstock.com