Although it is still early, the Ukrainian military should already be working on its new counteroffensive. 

Right now, the conflict in Ukraine resembles a soccer match that has gone on to extra time. Both sides are tired and have made most of their substitutions. But there is no winner yet, and the prospect of a penalty shootout doesn’t really appeal to either side. So, both sides will try to score that golden goal in extra time and claim the prize. 

In military terms, that goal is an operational breakthrough. Both sides failed to achieve that in the latest round of operations. The Ukrainian counteroffensive faltered, opening the way for the Russian military to launch its own large-scale offensive, forcing the Ukrainians to abandon their operation and focus men and resources on the defense. Thus, 2023 came to an end. 

A Failed Counteroffensive for Ukraine

Last June, the Ukrainian military launched its long-awaited large-scale counteroffensive in southern Ukraine and the Donbas. 

The Ukrainian military, in close cooperation with NATO, spent months preparing several heavy brigades for the operation.

A renewed flow of Western military aid equipped the Ukrainian formations with advanced heavy weapon systems, including Challenger 2, Leopard 2, and Leopard 1 main battle tanks, AMX-10 RC tank-killers, M2 Bradley and CV90 infantry fighting vehicles, and many artillery pieces. 

In addition, thousands of Ukrainian troops underwent basic and combined arms training by NATO instructors. With Russian morale and discipline in shambles, hopes for the Ukrainian counteroffensive were high. Its goal was to punch through the Russian defenses and sprint to the coast of the Sea of Azov, thus severing the land bridge that connects Russia with the occupied Crimea and preparing the stage for the liberation of the Peninsula. 

And yet, the Ukrainians failed. 

Miles upon miles of dense Russian minefields, trenches, anti-tank obstacles, heavy artillery fire, drones, and even tactical airstrikes stopped the Ukrainians in their tracks, allowing only for some tactical gains in the south and around Bakhmut, in the Donbas. 

But the extensive Russian defensive efforts—the most comprehensive Europe has seen since the end of World War Two—weren’t the only reason the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed to achieve its goals. In many ways, the Ukrainian field grade level didn’t perform as needed.

Tactically, the Ukrainians fought bravely and with skill, clearing minefields and capturing Russian trench systems.

But without an adequately trained command system to coordinate and take advantage of such tactical success, there is no operational breakthrough. 

Adjusting Fire 

Moving forward, the Ukrainian military should spend more time and resources training not only its ground troops but also the senior leaders who lead them. Combined arms operations—connecting mechanized units, long-range fires, electronic warfare, and air power—are difficult. But it can also be highly rewarding and break an enemy. 

Proficiency in combined arms operations is one of the great advantages of the U.S military and NATO. So, they should be more open in training their Ukrainian counterparts and prepare them for the next round of counteroffensive.

The Ukrainian conflict has a long way to go. However, a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive could shorten the war significantly. Kyiv needs to sit down with its Western partners and plan the conditions to achieve that result and win. 

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense and national security journalist specializing in special operations. A Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), he holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP. You can email the author: [email protected]. 

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