The Russo-Ukraine War is now in its third year, and the general public is beginning to ask how the war ends?

The U.S., having contributed about $75 billion to Ukraine’s resistance efforts, has a more practical reason for pondering the war’s conclusion, the nature of which will determine whether Washington’s investment was worthwhile.

The war has been stalemated for a long time. Months have passed since either side made a measurable gain in the conflict. The stalemate has become a gluttonous consumer of resources, featuring the most savage fighting on the European continent since the conclusion of World War II. The human toll of the war is hard to comprehend. Russia has sustained 407,240 casualties since the war began. Ukraine’s casualties are harder to tally, but as of last August they probably stood at around 70,000 killed and 120,000 wounded.  

The measurable benefits gained from nearly half a million casualties are difficult to articulate. While territorial gains have stagnated, prospects for any future breakthrough are also limited. Washington, for its part, has accomplished little other than forcing Russia to further expend resources.  

The time seems appropriate for a negotiated settlement. That seems the most likely conclusion to the Russo-Ukraine War, and the sooner a settlement is reached, the better.

Ukraine Should Pursue a Negotiated Settlement

Ukraine is not poised to win back territory from the Russian aggressors. Further, the strategic benefits of any territory it does regain would be limited, making the effort hard to justify. 

Ukraine’s most recent counteroffensive failed, and future counteroffensives would likely suffer the same fate. Compounding Ukraine’s problem is the finite nature of U.S. support. To date, the U.S. has helped to sustain Ukraine’s resistance with a contribution of nearly $75 billion. But U.S. support cannot last forever. Ultimately, U.S. taxpayers and the elected officials that represent them, will recognize that the strategic benefits of supporting Ukraine are nearly nonexistent. When that realization dawns, expect U.S. funding for the conflict to dry up. That will put further pressure on Ukraine to settle, while simultaneously degrading the strength of their negotiating position.

Russia Should Pursue a Negotiated Settlement

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine has been a disaster on par with the Soviet Union’s ill-fated Afghan intervention – a conflict that accelerated the dissolution of the regime. Putin is unlikely to see his regime dissolve in the near future, but the Russo-Ukraine War has had long-lasting negative effects. 

Most acutely, Russia has suffered over 400,000 casualties and degraded its military’s capabilities through a steady hemorrhage of tanks, armored personnel carriers, and aircraft. Russia has also degraded its reputation on the world stage, bankrupting its political capital and solidifying the nation’s status as a pariah on par with North Korea or Iran.

The US Should Pursue a Negotiated Settlement

The U.S. has gained very little from its $75 billion investment in Ukraine. The only tangible benefit, arguably, is that U.S. investment forced Russia to expend more resources than they would have otherwise, weakening a rival power, and reducing the likelihood that Russia ever becomes a hegemon in Eurasia. To continue funding Ukraine’s stalemate would be strategically unwise and fiscally reckless. The U.S. should pressure the Ukrainians to pursue a settlement aggressively.

Because the parties most directly involved in the war all have pressing reasons to pursue a settlement, a settlement seems the most likely conclusion.

About the Author: Harrison Kass 

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.