Summary and Key Points: China's strategic focus on the South China Sea has led to an assertive stance, with Beijing creating manmade islands and establishing anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) systems. Despite international rulings deeming China's actions illegal, the U.S. and its allies have been unable to counter Beijing’s entrenched position.

-China’s A2/AD network, which includes advanced missiles and evolving hypersonic defenses, poses a severe challenge to U.S. military intervention.

-Recent aggressive encounters between Chinese and Filipino naval forces have escalated tensions, putting pressure on the U.S. to honor its mutual defense pact with the Philippines. However, the U.S. is unlikely to successfully penetrate China’s fortified South China Sea defenses.

China's Dominance in the South China Sea: A Challenge America Can't Ignore

With regional actors like Japan or India less likely to intervene, the Philippines could face defeat if conflict arises. For China, the South China Sea is crucial not just for resources and trade routes but also as a strategic gateway to Taiwan.

America Would Lose to China in Fight Over South China Sea

The People’s Republic of China has spent the last decade or so laboring to make the South China Sea a Chinese lake. Today, Beijing is in the process of asserting their claim on the South China Sea. The Philippines is the country that has been most negatively impacted by China’s increasing level of aggression. But this has been a long time coming. In fact, it was quietly encouraged by former American presidents. 

Back when former President Barack Obama was still somewhat green-behind-the-ears as leader of the Free World, he listened to bad advice from Kurt Campbell, a State Department official and a China expert, who encouraged him to ignore the obvious provocation from Beijing in 2009-2010, when Chinese forces went on an island-building spree in the coral reefs of the South China Sea. These manmade islands were subsequently ruled as being illegal in international court.

But that didn’t stop China. Especially after China’s rulers recognized that the Obama administration had no plan or desire to either stop more island-building projects or to roll back the islands that China had already built. 

From that moment on, there was going to be a showdown between the West and China over the South China Sea. And the Philippines was going to be caught up in the crossfire. Thanks to the initial refusal to prevent the Chinese island-building in the South China Sea more than a decade ago, the United States and its regional partners are now having to contend with an entrenched China that is solidifying its position in the area.

China Has Already Won

In fact, China now has the capabilities to try boxing out the U.S. military from the South China Sea, thanks to advanced anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) systems arrayed across the islands of the region. These A2/AD networks not only consist of advanced missiles that China produces like sausages. China is also incorporating hypersonic weapons into their A2/AD arsenals against which the United States has no defense. 

And China is constantly evolving this A2/AD capability. 

For example, China is reportedly working to marry these forward-deployed, advanced A2/AD systems with microwave-photonic radar systems that can track incoming hypersonic missiles. So on top of negating the power projection of platforms like the aircraft carrier or strategic bombers, the Chinese may soon be able to defend against incoming hypersonic weapons, some of the latest offensive technologies under development by the world’s most powerful militaries. 

China has begun flexing their muscles recently. In a series of intense encounters in contested waters between the Filipino Navy and the Chinese Coast Guard, multiple Filipino ships were harassed by the Chinese. The Philippine defense minister stated his government is planning to retaliate against China for their illegal actions in what the international courts have ruled are Philippine waters. 

When pressed by the Western reporter he was speaking to as to what that would mean for the United States, the Philippine defense chief said that the United States would have to honor its mutual defense pact with the Philippines.

What Happens Next?

For their part, the Biden-Harris administration has reasserted America’s obligation to defend the Philippines should war erupt between China and the Philippines. But this is likely just loose talk. After all, given the military situation as was described above, the idea that the United States could reliably penetrate the well-defended South China Sea is ridiculous. 

Plus, unlike Taiwan, it is unlikely that any other regional power, such as Japan or India, would come rushing to the aid of the Philippines if they were attacked by China. 

With a major ally, like the United States, isolated from the South China Sea, and few other regional actors willing to intervene on their behalf, the Philippines would likely lose a conflict with China. Beijing must capture the South China Sea, not just because of the bountiful natural resources there and the fact that so much trade passes through the region. What’s more important for China in the South China Sea is the fact that it serves as one of the key passes leading to Taiwan.

And, make no mistake, this is about capturing Taiwan. 

China has completely outmaneuvered the Americans in the South China Sea. Should war erupt between the Philippines and China, the United States would be unlikely to overcome the advantages that China possesses, thanks to their copious investments into things like A2/AD. 

Author Experience and Expertise: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock. 

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