Summary and Key Points: A Ukrainian long-range strike with a U.S.-provided ATACMS missile killed five civilians, including three children, in Sevastopol, Crimea. Moscow has vowed retaliation against Ukraine and the U.S.

-The strike was likely targeting a high-value military site but resulted in civilian casualties. The ATACMS missile, launched from HIMARS or MLRS, has a range of nearly 200 miles and uses GPS for precision targeting. U.S. officials emphasize Ukraine's responsibility for targeting, noting the importance of minimizing civilian casualties.

-The Kremlin may use this incident for propaganda and future escalation, but immediate major escalation is unlikely.

Ukrainian ATACMS Strike in Crimea: Five Civilians Killed

According to Russian officials, a Ukrainian long-range strike with a U.S.-provided ATACMS munition killed five civilians, including three children, in Crimea.

Moscow has vowed retaliation against Ukraine and the U.S. over the strike.

ATACMS Strike

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, on Sunday, a Ukrainian ATACMS missile exploded above a beach resort in Sevastopol, killing five civilians and wounding over a hundred.

Sevastopol, the capital of the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula, is a major military hub for the Russian military and has been repeatedly targeted by the Ukrainian forces with air and naval attacks.

"You should ask my colleagues in Europe, and above all in Washington, the press secretaries, why their governments are killing Russian children," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, according to Reuters.

After months of long-range missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure and urban centers—and thousands of civilians killed and wounded—Ukraine is on the counteroffensive, using Western-provided weapon systems and munitions to target Russian high-value military targets behind the frontlines.

The Sunday incident was likely such an attack until something went wrong.

U.S. officials reinforced that Kyiv is responsible for the targeting processes involved behind long-range strikes, and the Pentagon has been providing military assistance to the besieged country to help it defend against the unprovoked Russian aggression.

The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) is a tactical ballistic munition fired from the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) or M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS). It has a range of almost 200 miles and uses a global positioning system to navigate toward the target with accuracy. The Ukrainian military has an unspecified number of ATACMS munitions that it has been using against high-value military targets in Ukraine and behind the front lines.

Escalation?

What happened in Crimea has always been at the back of the minds of US officials. The Kremlin is ready to latch on to anything it can to discredit the U.S., NATO, and military assistance for Ukraine. The fact that the missile potentially killed or wounded civilians is easy propaganda for the Kremlin.

That is one of the main reasons why the White House has been so hesitant to truly unleash military assistance to Kyiv. But these are the unfortunate realities of war. The important thing is to have a proper targeting process that takes into account civilian casualties. Thus far, the Ukrainian targeting process has been good, with minimal unintentional casualties.

At the end of the day, the Kremlin will likely not seek further escalation—such as a tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine—over the ATACMS strike. U.S officials have very likely already informed their Ukrainian counterparts that there needs to be better intelligence before a long-range strike involving weapon systems and munitions provided by the Pentagon. But besides that, life will go on as usual. However, Russian officials might include this strike in a ”list of grievances” to support further escalation down the line at a time of their choosing.

About the Author: Biography and Military Expertise 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

All images are Creative Commons. 

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