Summary and Key Points: The war in Ukraine has persisted for 851 days with no end in sight. Russian offensives have yielded only minor tactical victories, while Ukraine remains on the defensive, awaiting new military aid from the U.S. and the West.

-Recent congressional approval of a large security aid package is expected to bolster Ukraine's counteroffensive capabilities by mid to late July, according to Lt. General Kyrylo Budanov. Despite heavy Russian casualties, estimated at nearly 550,000 since the war began, Moscow continues to replenish its forces.

-The Kremlin's high-attrition strategy leverages its larger manpower reserves, aiming to outlast Ukraine's recruiting capabilities.

Ukraine’s War: Stalemate and Attrition After 851 Days of Conflict

The war in Ukraine has been going on for 851 days, but the fighting doesn’t seem to have an end.

The Russian offensives are failing to achieve anything more significant than small tactical victories, while the Ukrainian military is still on the defense, waiting for new military assistance to arrive from the United States and the West before going back on the counteroffensive.

Where Things Stand Now in War

A stalemate in American politics blocked any new military aid to Ukraine for the better part of the previous 12 months. However, since Congress passed a massive security aid assistance package for Ukraine in April, things have changed.

According to Lt. General Kyrylo Budanov, the chief of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate, or GUR, Ukraine will soon be receiving additional military aid from the U.S. Budanov acknowledged that weapon systems and ammunition have been arriving in Kyiv but not in the volume necessary to support a large-scale counteroffensive that could turn the tides of the conflict. The Ukrainian military spy added that he expects sufficient volume to arrive in mid to late July.

Ukrainian officials have expressed particular preference for long-range munitions, such as the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). This tactical ballistic missile can be fired from an M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) or M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and hit targets as far as 200 miles away with precision. The U.S. hasn’t placed any restrictions on the use of these munitions, and the Ukrainian military is free to use sound targeting processes to hit high-value targets of its choosing.

Casualties and Force Generation

Meanwhile, the Russian forces continue to take extremely heavy casualties. Indeed, the past 48 hours have been one of the deadliest for the Russian military in the war so far. According to data shared by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense—they are generally accurate—over the past 48 hours, the Russian forces lost approximately 2,500 men killed, wounded, or captured, as well as 114 tactical vehicles and fuel tanks, 86 artillery guns and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), 58 unmanned aerial systems and suicide drones, 26 pieces of special equipment, 32 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 16 main battle tanks, and 3 cruise missiles destroyed or damaged.

The Kremlin may have stabilized the front line and have the Ukrainian forces under pressure, but the Russian military is suffering greatly for it. In over 24 months of combat, the Russian forces have lost close to 550,000 men killed, wounded, or captured, as well as tens of thousands of heavy weapon systems and support vehicles.

However, for the time being, Moscow has been able to regenerate forces—admittedly of low quality—to fill any gaps created by the exorbitant casualties.

Paradoxically, this is the strategy Moscow has chosen. The Kremlin has intentionally taken the war into a high attrition mode, hoping that its vast manpower reserves will give it an advantage over Ukraine’s depleting pools of recruits.

About the Author: Biography and Military Expertise 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock. 

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