Real Maximum Pressure: What Happens If Coronavirus Spreads Fast in North Korea?

March 7, 2020 Topic: Security Region: Asia Blog Brand: Korea Watch Tags: North KoreaChinaSouth KoreaCoronavirusPandemic

Real Maximum Pressure: What Happens If Coronavirus Spreads Fast in North Korea?

What if the regime--with lots of weapons of mass destruction--becomes unstable? Should Donald Trump offer help?

Some observers contend that the North is being more forthcoming than normal. Argued Lee, “North Korean media’s providing specific numbers speaks to an unusual level of transparency.” Despite its continuing penchant for secrecy, she suggested, Kim’s government has shown “increased openness toward acknowledging mistakes or things have gone awry in Kim Jong Un’s era” and “increased efforts to project an image that the top leadership is taking proactive measures to protect the people against natural catastrophes.”

Perhaps true, since almost everything involving the North is compared to what? It would not be hard for the newest Kim to be more open than his father and grandfather. Perhaps the DPRK is not quite the old international black hole, but it remains largely impenetrable by other nations. So far the new transparency is opaque at best, bringing to mind the Apostle Paul’s statement to the Corinthian church that we “see through a glass, darkly.” Which is a dangerous situation in the midst of a potentially deadly pandemic.

The United States should respond by offering medical and scientific assistance, which could provide an opportunity to revive diplomacy. The president’s demand for full denuclearization before sanctions relief is a nonstarter. He should send a “beautiful” letter to Kim Jong-un proposing to set politics aside and send a delegation led by the Surgeon General and including staff members at the Centers for Disease Control, major private health agencies, and NGOs focused on health care. Treat this crisis as an opportunity to show that U.S.-DPRK relations really have changed in a fundamental way.

Next, set a meeting with South Korean, Russian, and Chinese diplomats to discuss sanctions exemptions and suspensions to ensure that controls do not inhibit relief from reaching the North. Particularly important is making it easy for the Republic of Korea to move forward with aid projects. Interestingly, Kim wrote South Korean President Moon Jae-in a letter expressing condolences over the impact of the diseases, confidence that Seoul would “prevail in this fight without fail,” and Kim’s “unwavering friendship and trust.” Perhaps Kim cleverly sought to draw a contrast between (supposedly) coronavirus-free North Korea and coronavirus-flush South Korea. Yet Kim’s letter appears to be more fulsome than necessary for that purpose. The South should take the lead addressing the North.

Washington also should help clear the decks, so to speak, for outside aid agencies to assist. The World Health Organization issued exemptions for medical equipment and supplies for the DPRK. Nevertheless, the sanctions regime inhibits detection, prevention, and treatment. Warned Kee Park of Harvard Medical School: “Not only is North Korea a high-risk country—as a country with a weak health system—for the virus to inflict major harm, but the global sanctions regime also causes unintended yet very real impediments for the country as well as international aid organizations to respond.” Reducing these barriers would offer a potentially significant political benefit as well, demonstrating that the administration is prepared to adjust sanctions even before North Korean disarmament.

The spread of COVID-19 to the DPRK is bad news all around. Given the North’s isolation, the greatest danger is to the North Korean people, who are almost uniquely vulnerable to the disease. The U.S. should address the threat, both for humanitarian reasons—easing suffering in the North would be doing God’s work—and geopolitics, since the current diplomatic stalemate could easily worsen. No one should want either war or collapse, Two years ago President Trump seized the initiative in engaging Kim. He should follow up with another bold step.

Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is author of several books, including Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World and co-author of The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations with North and South Korea.

Image: Reuters.