That might be the best option for Ukraine, but it certainly isn't a good policy for the United States or Europe. Of course, some Americans talk about rushing Kiev into the alliance as if doing so were no more significant than rushing a college fraternity. National Review demanded that the first step in response to Russia "must be for the U.S. to agree with its NATO allies to confirm an offer of NATO membership for both Georgia and Ukraine," perhaps at an emergency NATO summit. At least some NATO advocates understand that NATO remains a military alliance. Clinton's political strategist, Dick Morris, and Eileen McGann say that Ukraine "can and must be defended by NATO." Yet going to war with Russia-which in this case means peering into the nuclear abyss-over Ukraine is little more palatable than doing so for Georgia.

Moreover, NATO membership isn't even an effective guarantor for Kiev. Just joining the alliance won't ensure that the other members will be prepared to confront Moscow militarily in a crisis. The likelihood of German, French, Italian, and British legions suiting up to rescue Kiev in a territorial squabble with Russia is low at best. America's willingness would be little greater, especially if the other major NATO members opted out. Ukraine wants a real security guarantee, but it is not likely to be forthcoming from NATO even if membership is offered.

But imagine if Ukraine had kept a few of its Soviet-era nuclear weapons and missiles. Talk of Russian pressure, let alone attack, would disappear.

The nuclear force would not have to have been large. For instance, the 46 SS-24s, which Ukraine's President Kravchuk once suggested keeping, each held 10 warheads. Every missile could include warheads targeted on Moscow and St. Petersburg, with the other eight warheads randomly covering other large cities. Even if only one survived a preventive Russian attack, it would be capable of inflicting massive destruction on Russia. A few hundred tactical nuclear weapons would be capable of devastating any conventional forces used in a Russian attack.

Ukraine would be more secure, without having to hope for rescue from the West. The United States and Europeans would not find themselves pushed to defend a country with no intrinsic security value to them. They would not be contemplating a policy of confrontation with a nuclear-armed power.

There obviously would be downsides to Kiev's possession of a nuclear arsenal, and the past cannot be reclaimed. But there is a lesson to be learned for the future: idealistic policies adopted in haste might actually make the world a more dangerous place. If America and Europe eventually find themselves at war in Ukraine, they are likely to rue the day that the final Ukrainian nuclear warhead was sent back to Russia at Washington's behest.

 

Doug Bandow is the Robert A. Taft Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance. He is a former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan and the author of several books, including Foreign Follies: America's New Global Empire (Xulon).