JPMorgan CEO Says a Recession Could Hit Within 6 Months

October 13, 2022 Topic: Recession Region: United States Blog Brand: Politics Tags: JP MorganU.S. EconomyS&P 500Federal ReserveInterest Rates

JPMorgan CEO Says a Recession Could Hit Within 6 Months

Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones also struck a similar pessimistic tone, saying he believes that the U.S. economy is either near or already in the middle of a recession.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday sounded the alarm that the United States and the global economy could be tipped into a recession by the middle of next year, according to a new CNBC report.

Dimon admitted to the business news outlet in London that the U.S. economy is “actually still doing well,” but “you can’t talk about the economy without talking about stuff in the future—and this is serious stuff.”

Among the indicators he sees highly concerning are still-elevated inflationary pressures, interest rates likely trekking higher, the unknown effects of quantitative tightening, and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

“These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world—I mean, Europe is already in recession—and they’re likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now,” Dimon said.

As for his outlook on the S&P 500, Dimon acknowledged that the benchmark could plummet by “another easy 20 percent” from current levels, adding that “the next 20 percent would be much more painful than the first.”

Meanwhile, billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones also struck a similar pessimistic tone, saying he believes that the U.S. economy is either near or already in the middle of a recession.

“I don’t know whether [a recession] started now or it started two months ago,” he told CNBC on Monday. “We always find out and we are always surprised at when recession officially starts, but I’m assuming we are going to go into one.”

Last month, in an effort to tackle inflation levels that are still sitting at roughly forty-year highs, the Federal Reserve approved a third consecutive seventy-five-basis-point interest rate hike and suggested that it will keep raising rates well above the current level. With the move, the central bank took its federal funds rate up to a range of 3 percent to 3.25 percent, the highest level since the global financial crisis in 2008.

Jones noted that it would be very challenging for the Federal Reserve to bring inflation back to its 2 percent target.

“Inflation is a bit like toothpaste. Once you get it out of the tube, it’s hard to get it back in,” said the founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment.

“The Fed is furiously trying to wash that taste out of their mouth. ... If we go into recession, that has really negative consequences for a variety of assets. … If they don’t keep going and we have high and permanent inflation, it just creates I think more issues down the road,” he concluded.

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Washington state-based Finance and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn.

Image: Reuters.