Munich's Lessons for the Ukraine Crisis
Leaders often turn to history when they are unsure of how to proceed. As President Obama and his closest advisers consult on how best to respond to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, one historical episode is likely to stand head and shoulders above all the rest: Munich. No other bygone foreign-policy failure is more etched into the minds of western elites than the fateful attempt to appease Nazi Germany in September, 1938. Whether or not White House officials themselves see any prescriptive merit in the lessons of Munich, the administration undoubtedly will be keen to avoid criticism that the president is an appeaser—an allegation levelled with gusto by Obama’s detractors following his actions over Syria and his modus vivendi with Iran last year. Yet a thorough consideration of what transpired at Munich offers a more subtle lesson for those who seek to preserve peace and stability than just a dictum against appeasement.
The parallels with 1938 are eerie to some. Russia today is a resurgent great power led by an autocratic strongman with a penchant for fanning chauvinist sentiment at home. A large part of Vladimir Putin’s domestic appeal is the perception that he rescued Russia after a decade in the doldrums. The 1990s were a period of humiliation for Russians, when their state and economy collapsed around them. Living standards plummeted and corruption was rife. On the world stage, the former superpower was forced to endure the indignity of the U.S. and its allies meddling in its traditional spheres of influences. Under Putin, this trend of national ignominy has been reversed—a process still underway, to be sure, but an achievement for which Putin has earned the admiration of many of his compatriots.
Putin also is popular among those in Russia’s “Near Abroad” who have resisted westernization—in Belarus, eastern Ukraine, the breakaway Georgian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and (at times) the Central Asian republics, for example. Especially among embattled elites (such as Viktor Yanukovych and his henchmen) and Russia’s “beached diaspora” (that is, those Russian communities which found themselves living in independent, often virulently anti-Russian countries following the collapse of the Soviet Union), Putin’s Russia is seen as a protector. In this sense, Putin has fashioned for Russia a role not too dissimilar from Tsarist Russia’s self-styled mantle of defender of European Slavs and Orthodox Christians during the nineteenth century.
Eastern Ukraine and particularly Crimea are examples of regions where Putin and Russia find favor. The public displays of support that have been witnessed over recent years are genuine, indicative of real affection for and affinity to Russia and its confident international leadership. Well over half of Crimea’s population is ethnic Russian, while only a quarter is ethnic Ukrainian and less than an eighth is Tatar. There are many Russian nationals in the region. While Russia’s intervention in Crimea might violate international law and anger Western opinion, it is popular among this segment of the local population.
All of this is uncannily familiar to the Sudeten Crisis, when Adolf Hitler positioned himself as the champion not only of Germans within Germany itself, but also of ethnic German nationalists abroad—particularly in the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia. Having risen to power on the back of promising to restore German greatness and undo the humiliations imposed by Versailles, Hitler now claimed that the Sudeten Germans needed the protection of the Reich. German troops were massed on the Czech border and, after much saber-rattling, the crisis ended with the infamous Munich Agreement by which the Great Powers of the day—Britain, France, Germany and Italy—agreed to the cession of Sudetenland to Germany.
Britain’s Neville Chamberlain and France’s Édouard Daladier hoped that appeasing Germany would satisfy Hitler’s hunger for expansion. In any case, Chamberlain at least was broadly sympathetic to the notion that ethnic Germans should be brought under the rule of the German state, where practicable. The result, however, was an emboldened German Reich and the invasion of Czechoslovakia in March 1939; the subsequent seizure of Memel (now Klaipėda) from Lithuania that same month; and demands for Danzig and the Polish Corridor that ultimately resulted in the outbreak of World War II.
The primary lesson of Munich, then, would seem clear: to accede to bellicose states’ demands is to endorse and embolden those who should properly be contained, reformed or removed from power. In the words of Winston Churchill, the proverbial godfather of this view, “an appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.” Given the context of Churchill’s premiership, it is easy to see why this witticism is today viewed as a genuine—indeed, timeless—insight; a veritable axiom of statecraft. The Allies’ fateful attempts at appeasing Nazi Germany in the 1930s still reverberate, and understandably so.