Our president has lost his playbook.
Mr. Obama came into office with a foreign-policy vision more clear and focused than most expected. It quickly became apparent that, on the international stage, he would be his own man. But now he is a different man.
The problem is that every pillar upon which the Obama Doctrine rested seems unable to bear any weight. No longer confident in his approach, the leader of the free world has become intensely risk-averse in his second term. Meanwhile, his foreign-policy and national-security teams are left floundering.
Our President's World
Apparently, the Nobel Peace Prize committee was on to something when it bestowed an award on Obama even before he had finished decorating the Oval Office. They anticipated he would try to put his mark on the world in a positive way, and they were right.
When it came time to decide the scope of the surge in Afghanistan, Obama made clear that he was the one in charge. It was no one-off moment. It soon became clear that all the big decisions—from resetting with Russia to getting bin Laden—were being made in the White House. As secretary of state, Hillary Clinton never had to sweat the big stuff. Her term of office wasn't quite as bad as those secretaries relegated to attending funerals and coronations, but she mostly made due with busy work—like an internet-freedom initiative.
Obama was not only in charge; he had a playbook—an underlying doctrine that guided his approach to foreign affairs everywhere.
Obama’s foreign-policy doctrine rested on three tenets.
● Demonstrate a willingness to engage directly with those countries that disagreed with America. If the United States eschewed the more muscular and aggressive foreign policy practiced by the Bush administration, Obama was convinced he could focus on addressing legitimate differences and finding common ground for consensus solutions.
● Play a more restrained role in the world, substituting "smart" power like diplomacy and economic aid for the "hard" power of military force. This practice, he believed, would both reduce global tensions and free up resources for "a little nation building right here at home."
● Manage more issues through international organizations and agreements. Working through forums like the United Nations, he would join in treaties and conventions to help establish legitimate “rules of the road” for the conduct of international affairs. These structures would, in turn, help mobilize efforts to deal with global challenges from global warming to freedom of the seas.
No one could accuse the Oval Office of not following this playbook. Throughout the first term, Obama seemed willing to chew the fat with the head of any adversarial state. Overtures were made, repeatedly, to Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, Russia and China. The administration even mused about holding talks with the Taliban.
The White House also got serious about substituting soft for hard power. A drawdown in Iraq was a forgone conclusion. During the intervention in Libya, the administration proudly described its strategy as "leading from behind." Even before the Budget Control Act of 2011 mandated reduced levels of federal spending, Obama okayed reducing resources for the armed forces by nearly half a trillion dollars. He gave commanders in Afghanistan less than half the forces they needed for the surge, then ordered additional force reductions before their job was half done.
There was much to-do on the international engagement front, too. The United States led the cheer leading for new global-warming initiatives. Obama embraced the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, pressing the Senate to ratify it. The White House also championed the "global zero" initiative, signing the New START agreement with Russia and trumpeting the effort as the first step in ridding the world of nuclear weapons.
Unfortunately, the Obama Doctrine has created more problems than it has solved.