Celebrating the Success of Project Sapphire
Twenty years ago this week, in a spectacular operation, the United States transported from Kazakhstan to Oak Ridge, Tennessee over 600 kilograms of at-risk, weapons-usable highly enriched uranium (HEU) for safekeeping. It could have been used to fabricate more than twenty nuclear weapons. This secret undertaking, part of a broader cooperative de-nuclearization effort, shows how a mix of favorable circumstances, strategic trust and innovative approaches can ease nuclear dangers.
The success of Project Sapphire was a victory for Kazakhstan. It had the courage to trust its new relationship with the United States to help prevent the proliferation of dangerous material to countries that might seek to build nuclear weapons. Sapphire was a gain for the United States as well. For decades, Washington has maintained a robust nonproliferation policy, but it had to adapt tools and capabilities to respond with agility to an unprecedented risk. Above all, Project Sapphire was an accomplishment for the global nuclear-nonproliferation regime, ensuring that a huge quantity of HEU would not fall into the wrong hands.
As it became independent in December 1991, Kazakhstan’s leaders stepped up to the plate and made the responsible decision not to retain leftover Soviet nuclear weapons. Several factors facilitated the decision.
First, Kazakhstanis had developed nuclear neuralgia. Decades of careless nuclear testing in the northeastern region of Semipalatinsk had caused untold health and environmental damage. Taking advantage of Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev’s glasnost (openness) campaign, the Nevada-Semipalatinsk anti-nuclear public-protest movement emerged. Over one million Kazakhstanis signed petitions for a ban on nuclear testing. Kazakhstani leaders took advantage of this development to enhance their legitimacy at the expense of rulers in distant Moscow.
Second, Kazakhstan had no interest in militarily deterring possible Russian or Chinese aggression. With millions of ethnic Russians living in the northern rim of the country, leaders in Kazakhstan did not want to stir trouble. Nearly all transport routes in and out of Kazakhstan traversed Russia. Factories and farms depended on Russian markets, supplies and technologies. After the Stalin era, ethnic Kazakhs, Slavs and other nationalities lived together peacefully. The Russian language was the lingua franca in national economic life. China posed no evident major military threat to Kazakhstan. Uyghurs who lived on the other side of the Chinese border in Xinjiang were seen as a friendly Turkic people.
Third, Kazakhstan lacked the technical capacity to sustain nuclear forces. All Soviet nuclear-weapons assembly and major maintenance facilities and laboratories were in Russia. Kazakhstanis would have opposed continued nuclear testing required to maintain or modernize nuclear weapons.
Fourth, the United States and Kazakhstan developed strategic trust that advanced the de-nuclearization agenda. Early on, Secretary of State James Baker visited Kazakhstan twice and engaged President Nursultan Nazarbayev on de-nuclearization and energy cooperation. Days before the Soviet Union collapsed on December 25, 1991, Nazarbayev told Baker that Kazakhstan would declare itself to be a non-nuclear state when it was admitted to the United Nations.
During a May 1992 meeting with President George H. W. Bush in Washington, Nazarbayev pledged to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapon state. Following on discussions that Secretary Baker held with Nazarbayev, Senators Richard Lugar and Sam Nunn visited him in Almaty to discuss Cooperative Threat Reduction, an initiative they created and funded. In December 1993, during a visit by Vice President Al Gore, the Kazakhstani parliament assented to the NPT. In February 1994, Nazarbayev visited Washington again and met with President Bill Clinton. This led to even deeper bilateral ties, reinforced by sustained diplomatic engagement at working levels, and ultimately the creation of a Gore-Nazarbayev Commission.
In Budapest in December 1994, representatives of Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States signed a memorandum that offered political assurances to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine—the three states that had inherited Soviet strategic nuclear weapons—against threats or use of force against their territorial integrity or political independence, provided they de-nuclearized. The Budapest Memorandum underscored existing commitments from the NPT and the United Nations Charter so as to provide greater confidence to the three to cede their nuclear weapons and associated infrastructure.
Fifth, economics encouraged de-nuclearization. Only Western energy companies had the technology and capacity to help Kazakhstan exploit its large but challenging oil reserves. Even before the Soviet collapse, Chevron reached out to Nazarbayev about the huge Tengiz deposit on the edge of the Caspian Sea. Kazakhstani leaders realized that obtaining Western support for energy development hinged on the country’s ceding nuclear weapons and joining the NPT. The strategy worked. Tengiz became the first major foreign investment in the former Soviet Union, and it remains successful today.