Duterte’s Art of the Deal
Editor’s Note: The following are excerpts from Richard Javad Heydarian’s latest book The Rise of Duterte: A Populist Revolt Against Elite Democracy (Palgrave Macmillan, 2017).
“I will be chartering [sic] a [new] course [for the Philippines] on its own and will not be dependent on the United States,” Duterte declared right after securing electoral victory. Without a doubt, it was an audacious statement from the then newly-elected Filipino president, who was set to take over one of America’s oldest and most loyal allies in history. At first, not many, including those within the diplomatic community, took his words too seriously, with some dismissing the “nationalistic” statements as soaring rhetoric bereft of policy substance.
After all, Duterte himself began to communicate a more pragmatic strand of leadership as he inched closer to formally occupying the highest office in the land. Weeks before his inauguration, Duterte sought to reassure the media that it will be his “last time as a rude person.” Duterte promised that, “[w]hen I become president, when I take my oath of office…There will be a metamorphosis,” whereby he will “steadily [evolve] from a caterpillar [and] blossom into a butterfly.” The same message of reassurance was more than abundant during his inauguration and first State of the Nation Address (SONA) speeches. “On the international front and in the community of nations, let me reiterate that the Republic of the Philippines will honor treaties and international obligations,” he remarked during his unusually subdued inauguration speech (June 30).
During his first month in office, Duterte held broadly cordial conversations with senior American officials. He met Kristie Kenney, counselor at the State Department and former Ambassador to Manila and Bangkok, as well as then Secretary of State John Kerry, who vowed to beef up American assistance to Philippine law enforcement agencies. There were some disagreements over the direction of Philippine foreign policy, particularly towards China in light of the South China Sea disputes, but there was little indication of an outright, irreconcilable rift. In fact, right after Duterte’s election victory, President Obama was the first foreign leader to call and congratulate the new Filipino leader. At this juncture, many observers presumed that bilateral relations would move forward without any major hiccup.
Despite his prior misgivings about America, Duterte was clearly in his pragmatic, Machiavellian mode, realizing that as the president of the Philippines he should initially try to maintain some modicum of stable relations with America, which remains deeply popular among the security establishment and broader Philippine populace. But this didn’t mean that Duterte would stick to the status quo and view Washington with the same level of deference as his predecessors. By now, the strategic terms of bilateral engagement had changed, but only a few noticed it.
Soon, it became increasingly clear that Duterte’s ascent signaled the beginning of a new phase in Philippine foreign policy, particularly in terms of relations with the Southeast Asian country’s chief security partner (America) and chief security concern (China). Under Duterte, relations with America became no longer as special and ties with China became no longer as hostile.
In effect, the former mayor of Davao sought to anchor his country’s foreign policy in a post-American episteme, where Western allies are just a component of a more geographically diversified basket of strategic partners and interlocutors. This was the true “revolution” in Philippine foreign policy under Duterte.
To understand Duterte’s emerging foreign policy, which has jolted both allies and rivals as well as much of the Philippine public, one should analyze the intersection of five key elements.
The first thing to keep in mind is that Duterte’s political success has been built on a full-fledged “antiestablishment” brand of populism, which represents a wholesale—at least in terms of style and rhetoric—rejection of the Philippine political elite and their entire policy paradigm.
For Duterte, the presidential election wasn’t only about selecting the Philippines’ next political leader, but also a referendum on the three-decades-old elite democracy, which replaced the Marcos dictatorship in 1986, but miserably failed—even during its heydays under the Benigno Aquino administration—to deliver on its fundamental promise of freedom and prosperity for the majority of the population.