How Russia Plans to Influence Syria's Future
In early December Vladimir Putin announced the withdrawal of the majority of Russia’s military presence from Syria. Though he has made similar announcements in the past, there is mounting evidence that major military operations are nearing their end. Two years have passed since operations began—and it is time to take stock of Russia’s achievements.
The primary goal of the Russian intervention was to protect Bashar al-Assad from regime change—this necessitated degrading U.S.-backed irregular forces, and later transforming the character of the conflict. In short order, Russia secured a long-term presence and improved a once decrepit naval facility in Tartus, as well as assisted regime forces in the recapture of vast swaths of Eastern and Southeastern Syria. Finally, while far from being the primary objective of Russia’s intervention, it contributed to the degradation of ISIS forces in Homs and Deir ez-Zor governorates.
Once the Russian military achieved those goals, the Kremlin began to value Syria as diplomatic leverage, positioning Russia as the linchpin in negotiations about Syria’s political future. Moscow also demonstrated a commitment to defend its allies and the capacity to conduct large-scale anti-terror operations. Russia’s surprisingly adroit use of expeditionary military power has challenged many existing geopolitical-power structures in the Middle East. Going forward, as Nicholas Heras, a noted expert on the region, put it: “from their base in Syria, the Russians can continue to seek to project influence into the wider Middle East.” Further, Moscow’s military deployments and procurement strategy indicate that it is committed to the region for the long-term.
Prior to Russia’s entry into this civil war, the Syrian government was caught on a defensive footing on numerous fronts—including the stalemated Battle for Aleppo, stagnated offensives against rebel-held neighborhoods in Damascus, forces encircled at Deir ez-Zor and a slow campaign in the Southern Front. Though regime collapse was unlikely, it was clear that the Syrian Army lacked the capacity to recapture major cities, such as Aleppo, while supporting major operations elsewhere in the country. For this reason, the first phase of Russia’s air campaign was concentrated in northern Syria, rather than on ISIS forces in eastern Syria. Backed now by Russian air power, regime forces successfully recaptured significant amounts of territory, relieving pressure on regime strongholds in major cities. However, operational cooperation between the Russian military and the Syrian Army remained far from harmonious.
The dissonance between the Russians and the Syrian Army was highlighted by the embarrassing surprise recapture of Palmyra by ISIS in December 2016. Just months earlier, the ancient city had been the site of an elaborate—and widely propagandized—concert conducted by Putin ally Valery Gergiev. Other incidents, such as the multi-year siege of Deir ez-Zor, have demonstrated the limitations of Russian air-power as the Syrian air-base there was nearly overrun on a number of occasions despite large-scale Russian Air Force operations. Similarly, Russia’s air power in Aleppo failed to translate into immediate tactical success and lasted fourteen months.
It should be noted that Russia’s battlefield successes did not take place in a vacuum—they benefited substantially from U.S. Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The transformation of Syrian Democratic Forces into a capable fighting force in northern Syria also contributed to the reduction in ISIS held territory. Significant regime victories, including the capture of the rebel-held neighborhoods of Aleppo in December 2016, can also be attributed in part to internal divisions within the Syrian opposition—and in particular to its inconsistent military effectiveness.