What Will Happen If Congress Strengthens Russia Sanctions?

Vladimir Putin in April 2017. Wikimedia Commons/Kremlin.ru

If the House approves the sanctions package and Trump cannot stop it, Moscow is likely to retaliate.

President Trump’s road to easing sanctions targeting Russia just became immensely more difficult. In a rare display of bipartisan unity, the Senate voted in favor of new sanctions against Russia by a margin of 97–2 on Wednesday afternoon. Republicans not only joined Democrats in supporting the initiative, but also helped spearhead it. The motion, which came in the form of an amendment to the Countering Iran’s Destabilizing Activities Act, is sponsored by Sen. Mike Crapo, chair of the Senate Banking Committee. Among its cosponsors it counts an equal number of Republicans and Democrats, including prominent GOP leaders like Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, Foreign Relations Committee chair Bob Corker and Armed Services Committee chair John McCain.

This amendment introduces several measures aimed at penalizing Russia over issues ranging from its actions in Ukraine and Syria to alleged cyberattacks during the last presidential election. It legislates previous executive-order sanctions and requires the president to seek congressional approval to relax or remove them. Moreover, it institutes new sanctions on certain Russian industries, such as mining, metals, shipping and railways, and paves the way for possible new sanctions on individuals. Finally, it pledges to provide “robust assistance to strengthen democratic institutions and counter disinformation across Central and Eastern European countries.”

Wednesday’s vote is the product of a long-standing congressional desire for additional sanctions. Even prior to Trump’s inauguration, a coalition of Republicans and Democrats in the Senate introduced the Counteracting Russian Hostilities Act. Not long after Trump assumed office, a bipartisan group of senators put forward the Russian Sanctions Review Act. Many of the proposals outlined in the amendment, such as instituting new sanctions over Russia’s international conduct and limiting the president’s ability to lift current sanctions, originated from these two bills.

Momentum for Russia sanctions legislation has dramatically increased over the past month. A major turning point came on May 25, when Senator Corker proclaimed new sanctions imminent. Previously, the Foreign Relations Committee chair was one of the few voices in Republican leadership urging caution on the matter, arguing that the Senate Intelligence Committee should first complete its investigation into Russia’s intervention in the 2016 election. Further pressure mounted last week, when top Democrats made it clear that their support for the Iran sanctions bill, which is popular among Republicans, was contingent upon additional Russia sanctions. On the eve of Attorney General Jeff Sessions’s testimony before the Senate over an alleged meeting with the Russian ambassador, Republicans and Democrats on the Banking and Foreign Relations Committees announced an agreement to strengthen and expand Russia sanctions. Two days later, the Senate overwhelmingly approved the motion.

As the push for more sanctions gained steam, the administration sent mixed signals about its stance. On May 26, National Economic Council director Gary Cohn hinted that the Trump White House might back additional sanctions. By contrast, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson offered a more cautious appraisal in a recent Senate Foreign Relations Committee testimony, expressing concern that new sanctions might limit his efforts to achieve progress in talks with Russia. A source familiar with the administration’s thinking blamed these conflicting messages on the fact that “there is not yet a defined policy towards Russia,” thereby creating an environment where different members of the Trump team make public statements without reference to a common strategic framework.

During deliberations surrounding the amendment, its proponents conceded that current sanctions did not inflict serious financial costs or significantly deter Russia. Speaking on the Senate floor on Tuesday, Senator Crapo admitted, “The Russians have largely learned to live in the economic confines of the existing sanctions regime.” He also acknowledged, “In Putin’s calculation, the costs of the sanctions do not outweigh the benefits of occupying Crimea and contributing to unrest in the Ukraine, to continue supporting the Assad regime’s assault on civilians in Syria, and conducting cyberattacks on people and companies and institutions around the globe.”

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