The Buzz

Would China Really Go to War with Taiwan over Some Boats?

So now China is overtly threatening cross-strait war should U.S. Navy vessels tarry at seaports in Taiwan. Congress and the Trump administration contemplate such port calls in the text of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act. President Donald Trump has just signed the act into law. Afterward, diplomat Li Kexin announced that he had informed U.S. officials that Beijing meant to invoke its 2005 “Anti-Secession Law” if Washington does dispatch naval vessels to Taiwan. Under that measure, China’s leadership reserves the right to deploy armed force to keep the island from declaring formal independence from the mainland.

And it served notice that it will exercise that right. “The day that a U.S. Navy vessel arrives in Kaohsiung,” proclaimed Li, “is the day that our People’s Liberation Army unifies Taiwan with military force.” In short, he issued a public threat, and a public threat demands some form of public reply from its targets. If Trump and Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen now fail to arrange American port visits, they will appear to have bent to Beijing’s will—and no political leader relishes seeming to waffle, for fear of retribution from his constituents.

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So did threatening America and the island represent a stroke of genius or boneheaded, self-defeating diplomacy? The latter, I’d say. Yet such diplomatic ham-fistedness is comforting in its way. It gives the lie to the image that the Chinese Communist leadership strives to project: that an ultracompetent leadership, befriended by History with a capital H and overseen by President Xi Jinping, is shepherding the nation through an inexorable rise to global eminence, if not supremacy.

Sunny uplands await!

This is an image that seems to have taken hold among Western leaders. Not long ago I was conversing with an official you’ve heard of, and that person contended that dynamism is now on the side of authoritarians around the world—chiefly those who rule China. Chinese Communists (along with their brethren in places like Russia and perhaps Iran) are the innovators. The world’s liberal democracies—reputedly havens for free thinking and innovation—are laggards, flailing around in an effort to keep pace with changing times and circumstances.

If so, that’s a nettlesome development. That would mean Chinese Communists now hold all of the advantages that political philosophers ascribe to authoritarian societies, as well as the advantages that accrue to liberal societies in places like Europe, North America, or maritime Asia. They can command and control. Rulers in Beijing can ordain where resources are to go, and count on their constituents to obey. What’s more, they have the enlightenment to espy when circumstances are changing around China, and update their practices accordingly.

Such a competitor can be strong and decisive, and nimble and adaptive. Liberal societies, by contrast, must build alliances among competing power centers. Alliance building entails compromise and consumes time, thus postponing and possibly misshaping the eventual decision.

Let’s ask a big brain about this. Florentine philosopher-statesman Niccolò Machiavelli acknowledges the defects in liberal governing arrangements, yet claims republics still command an enormous advantage: the ability to change out key leadership when change to the surroundings warrants. The “natural bent” of human character, maintains Machiavelli, is to keep doing what worked before. Individuals find it nigh on impossible to alter their natures, so they may thrive in one setting yet falter in another. But a republic can change out one leader whose predispositions fit the times for another suited to a new normal.

Rome, Machiavelli’s go-to example, could appoint Fabius “the Delayer” to mastermind defensive operations against the Carthaginian warlord Hannibal while Rome slowly—glacially—got its military act together. Once Fabius and company had fought Hannibal to a standstill in Italy, the city replaced Fabius with the brash Scipio Africanus to carry the war across the Mediterranean to Carthage, assaulting the problem at its source.