The Skeptics

The Mexican Trickle-Down Effect

Guatemala’s government has just declared a “state of siege” to deal with the growing power of Mexican-based drug cartels in its territory. Indeed, officials argue that one northern province has been “overrun” by the traffickers.

It is yet another indicator that the aggressive drug war that Washington and Mexico City have embraced is having perverse effects. The developments in Guatemala, along with the rising death toll in Mexico itself (now topping thirty thousand since President Felipe Calderón declared war on the drug cartels in December 2006), overwhelm the much-touted successes, such as the recent killing of Nazario Moreno González, the charismatic leader of the violent La Familia gang.

There is already evidence that Mexico’s drug-related corruption and violence is seeping northward into the United States. But that plague is spreading even more rapidly into Mexico’s small Central American neighbors.

That shift raises the interesting question of whether it is an unintended or intended consequence of President Calderón’s crackdown on the cartels. Wall Street Journal columnist Mary O’Grady and other experts suspect that such an outcome may be the real motive—or at least one of the key motives—underlying his strategy. According to O’Grady, “Mexico seeks to raise the cost of trafficking so that the flows go elsewhere.” And, one might add, so that at least some of the violence accompanying the drug trade also goes elsewhere.

There is little question that, whether intended or not, Calderón’s antidrug offensive is causing the cartels to become much more active in places outside of Mexico, especially in Central America. After investigating developments in Mexico’s southern neighbors, Washington Post reporters William Booth and Nick Miroff conclude that the drug cartel violence quickly spilling south into Central America “is threatening to destabilize fragile countries already rife with crime and corruption.” Other experts reach similar conclusions. David Gaddis, chief of operations for the Drug Enforcement Administration, contends that the Mexican organizations are moving into countries “where they feel, quite frankly, more comfortable” than they do in Mexico.

There is ample evidence to back up such pessimistic assessments. El Salvador’s murder rate, already one of the higher ones in the world, jumped another 37 percent in 2009. That increase was due almost entirely to increased fighting among drug-trafficking organizations. El Salvador’s defense minister, David Munguía Payés, states bluntly: “The more pressure there is in Mexico, the more the drug cartels will come to Central America looking for a safe haven.” In September, Salvadoran police discovered $9 million in cash buried in oil drums on a ranch. $9 million is a sizable sum—especially in a country as poor as El Salvador.

Furthermore, the turf fights that have so plagued Mexico are now being played out with much greater frequency and ferocity in Central America. And the same gruesome trophies, especially severed heads, are now showing up with greater frequency as well. Rival cartels are establishing a strong presence in several Central American countries. The Zetas, arguably Mexico’s most ruthless and violent drug faction (composed of rogue military special forces personnel that the United States helped train), have reportedly set up recruitment and training camps in Guatemala. Several trafficking organizations have created bases of operation in both Guatemala and Honduras to facilitate drug shipments northward by sea and air.

Corruption, a long-standing problem in Central American states as it is in Mexico, is reaching new heights as the cartels consolidate their beachheads. Since late 2008, four high-level figures, including two national police chiefs and a former president have been arrested and warrants are out for two former interior ministers who are now fugitives.

Central American political leaders are alarmed at the growing presence of the Mexican cartels in their countries, and they are pressing Washington for greater assistance. Costa Rican President Laura Chinchilla wants the United States to offer an antidrug-aid program specifically for Central America. That region is already included in the multiyear, multibillion-dollar Mérida Initiative that President George W. Bush launched in 2007. But most of that aid has gone to Mexico, not Central America. “We don’t want to be seen as an appendix of the Mérida Initiative,” President Chinchilla stated. “We want a plan for Central America.”

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