Eurabian Nights

Europe and its Muslims face three possible futures.

Issue: Mar-Apr 2007

THE MOST critical issue facing Europe is the long-term relationship between the continent's natives and its burgeoning Muslim minority. There are but three outcomes-Islamic takeover, Muslim expulsion or harmonious integration-and the end result has profound implications not only for Europe but for humanity as a whole.

Muslim Rule

EUROPE NEEDS immigrants (the fertility rate is about 1.4 children per woman, just two-thirds the replacement rate of 2.1) to avoid severe population decline, with all the woes that implies-particularly an absence of workers to fund generous pension plans-and Muslims tend to make up that imported third of the population. In part, this is because Muslims are close by; it's only 13 kilometers from Morocco to Spain. After moving to Europe, Muslims relieve European childlessness with a high fertility rate. Although the Muslim fertility rate is falling, it remains three times that of indigenous Europeans. In Brussels, "Muhammad" has for some years been the most popular name given to boys. Amsterdam and Rotterdam are on track to have majority Muslim populations by about 2015.

You must be a subscriber of The National Interest to access this article. If you are already a subscriber, please activate your online access. Not a subscriber? Become a subscriber today!