America's Disappearing War Data
The historical record of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars is being lost—and with it, the opportunity to learn from our mistakes and successes.
The Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns are unique in that they were the first wars to be documented electronically. The use of computers to track stabilization efforts produced enormous datasets in which important indicators were tracked, including daily electricity-production rates, georeferenced insurgent attacks, factory employment numbers, military spending on locally sourced goods and services and public opinion. These data serve not only as the foundation of the historical record of both conflicts, but offer researchers opportunities to study insurgency and terrorism in ways previously not possible.
Unfortunately, the data are at risk.
Army Secretary John McHugh recently admitted to members of Congress that thousands of records from the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts are missing. The army’s admission of losing track of data resonates with our experiences as both Defense Department officials implementing counterinsurgency programs in Iraq and now as researchers seeking to understand which programs succeeded in reducing violence levels and which did not. The problem is that much of the existing data were collected in an ad hoc manner that reflects the lack of planning for stability operations following both invasions. While certain data types were methodically maintained, others were kept by single individuals in more arbitrary ways—in some cases, on a single computer’s hard drive, in a personal computer or within an e-mail account. As flash drives are lost, computers reformatted, files erased, and human and magnetic memory degrades, various data types have been and will continue to be destroyed.
Yet the portion of these data that have so far been made available to scholars has enabled them to generate insights with important implications for current U.S. foreign policy. Equipped with advanced statistical methods, researchers from institutions including Stanford, Princeton and MIT who have managed to gain access to particular subsets of these data have begun to piece together the effects of various counterinsurgency programs. We now know, for instance, that military-funded projects in Iraq tailored to satisfy the needs of target communities were often effective in reducing insurgent violence, while there is virtually no evidence of such effect through billions of dollars in spending on large infrastructure projects like bridges and electrical grids.
Other results derived using the data are likely to give defense strategists and military planners reason to pause before committing taxpayer dollars. A growing body of work indicates that, contrary to widely held assumptions throughout both conflicts, poor economic conditions do not appear to account for violence levels. Academics were surprised to discover, for instance, that areas in Iraq and Afghanistan with the highest levels of unemployment experienced some of the lowest levels of insurgent violence. Before joining the White House as President Obama’s chief economist, Princeton professor Alan Krueger used data from Iraq to show that terrorists typically do not to come from low socioeconomic backgrounds.
These critical insights are only the first findings, and many opportunities for research remain. The effect of numerous large-scale programs implemented in both countries has yet to be tested, while more general questions related to the conditions under which individuals opt to join insurgencies or to engage in terrorism persist. Unfortunately, without directed efforts by the Defense Department to locate, centralize, and develop efficient access policies by which researchers can use these datasets, we may never know whether particular U.S. counterinsurgency programs helped coalition forces defeat insurgents or why some Iraqi and Afghan citizens turned to terrorism while others refrained from violence.
Current counterinsurgency doctrine rests in large part on the experiences as retold by individuals engaged in prior conflicts in places like Vietnam, Malaya and Algeria. As similar discussions are had with Iraq and Afghanistan combat veterans, Provincial Reconstruction Team advisors and others over coming years, conversation is sure to devolve to the minutia of how researchers might try to recover lost disk drives, read obsolete file formats, or track down particular contractors who had maintained specific data for the government but have not been heard from in years.