Back in the spring of 1975, when I was a young reporter for a Dow Jones newspaper called The National Observer, I was invited into a hotel suite in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, for an evening of conversation and Scotch with Dean Rusk, then about seven years past his tenure as secretary of state under presidents John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson. Those were tough times for America, led by President Gerald Ford following Richard Nixon’s resignation in the demoralizing Watergate scandal. South Vietnam had just fallen to the North, and the country was suffering economic pain, attributable in part to spiraling oil prices imposed by Mideast exporters enraged by U.S. support for Israel in the 1973 war. Ford’s standing was harmed further by his controversial decision to grant conditional amnesty to Vietnam-era military deserters.
At one point in the conversation Rusk pondered America’s Mideast predicament—committed to Israel as friend and ally for very powerful reasons but finding itself facing unpleasant economic consequences stemming from Arab angers over that support. Rusk speculated that U.S. presidents would have a tough time persuading the country’s young men to fight on behalf of Israel if the war didn’t coincide with American interests. “I think what they will say is, ‘No, thanks; I’ll take some of that amnesty instead.’”
While Rusk’s political assessment contained a certain flippancy, his expression is worth noting as public speculation mounts that Israel likely will attack Iran if it can’t get America to do the job. Much has been written about the geopolitical consequences of such a strike, about the military repercussions, the possible regional destabilization, the prospect for major economic dislocations, the subsequent drain in U.S. blood and treasure. The debate has been lively and healthy. Matthew Kroenig, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, gained widespread notice with his Foreign Affairs article arguing that an Israeli military strike would be far less dangerous than letting Iran build a nuclear capacity. Georgetown’s Paul Pillar countered in these spaces, as others did elsewhere, that Kroenig’s assessments overemphasized the threat of a nuclear Iran while minimizing the aftereffects of a military assault. More recently, writer Eric S. Margolis argued here that an Israeli attack would draw America into a war that isn’t in U.S. interests and that the country can’t afford.
But what would be the impact on the U.S.-Israeli relationship? That question has received almost no attention.
Probably the impact would be minimal if Israel managed to stage a clean series of strikes that actually set back Iran’s nuclear program by, say, three years, without serious retaliatory actions and without nasty geopolitical and economic consequences in the region or the world. But there is simply no chance that that would be the outcome. Iran would not be docile in the face of such an attack. It would retaliate, quite possibly by seeking to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which flows 20 percent of the oil traded worldwide. But it certainly would lash out at its enemies, possibly including the United States. It could seek to destabilize the entire Middle East and exploit the resulting regional chaos in order to enhance its geopolitical position in its neighborhood.
One thing we know about war is that all planning goes out the window once the shooting starts. This would be no exception. And so the consequences are likely to be far more dire and far more costly than Matthew Kroenig is willing to accept. The crisis would likely require the application of American power to restore order to the region and thwart the almost inevitable economic dislocation—stemming from a significant spike in oil prices—from becoming a global depression. This could mean major American military operations—naval combat in the Gulf, massive air strikes to hinder Iranian retaliatory actions, perhaps even ground troops on a major scale.
If this indeed were the result, is it reasonable to assume that the U.S.-Israeli relationship would be unaffected by Israeli actions that spawned such devastating results?