Iran's Nuclear-Submarine Folly
Last month, Iran announced its intent to build nuclear-powered submarines. While some may worry that this is yet another Iranian bid for destabilizing power, there is no need to panic. Tehran will be wasting money it does not have on a tool it does not need. Iranian nuclear submarines are not a realistic threat to American security. They may even be a bluff—Tehran has announced plans for a stealth-fighter aircraft and other high-tech weapons that have never seen the light of day. However, the nuclear program shows that the leadership can commit to internationally and financially costly programs for decades if it believes it will gain security and domestic prestige.
The Iranian desire for a conventional blue-water navy that can take action far from friendly shores has its origins in the days of the shah, who acquired a number of frigates from Britain and sought advanced American destroyers. This was a mismatch with Iran’s needs, as shown in April 1988 when the United States, furious after one of its ships hit an Iranian mine, launched a series of brief attacks on the Iranian navy. One of the frigates was sunk and another critically damaged; the Americans departed unscathed.
Iran learned from the defeat. Its naval forces are now centered on swarms of light boats, midget submarines, mines and coastal missiles that offer Tehran its best hope of harming an attacking power. When so close to home, expensive and bulky nuclear propulsion is overkill compared to smaller, quieter and cheaper diesel-electric propulsion; in fact, the U.S. Navy has panicked several times in recent years after modern diesel-electric submarines slipped through its defenses undetected. Iran is far behind the major powers in submarine technology, but its forces already can seriously endanger international shipping; during last winter’s tensions, experts suggested concerns over Gulf security were adding from eight to more than twenty dollars to the price of a barrel of oil.
But Iran’s leaders still express grander ambitions than threatening the vital sea-lanes off their coast, and accordingly they have sailed into the Mediterranean and spoken of putting ships off New York City. Additionally, Iran’s top naval officer recently announced plans to build ten more surface warships. Iran longs for the international prestige to match its storied civilization and claims of religious leadership; a traditional navy might seduce Khamenei just as it seduced the shah.
The problems are Iran’s geography and enemies. In spite of its long coast, Iran is poorly positioned for global naval power. It accesses the world through the claustrophobic Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman; beyond, it finds a growing Asia but also much poverty and insecurity. Its strategic competitors—chiefly the United States—dominate all these areas with aircraft, attack submarines and large surface fleets. Modern antiship weapons are deadly and have long ranges; large ships on the open ocean are extremely vulnerable. Iran’s ships would have few places to hide in the Indian Ocean and even fewer in the coastal seas, and with its limited resources and technological base, it cannot build enough ships to drive a superpower away.
The only ways out of this tough situation are stealth and ingenuity. Submarines are a perfect fit. In the shallow and noisy waters off Iran, submarines can blend in and wait for targets. With critical shipping lines in the area, a few attacks can have a major political and economic impact. Large nuclear-powered submarines are not optimal for this role. While most modern submarines need air to power their engines and charge their batteries and thus must periodically surface, nuclear submarines need no air and do not need to use weak batteries underwater. Thus, they can remain underwater indefinitely and travel long distances at depth. Their reactors, however, constantly make some noise, making them less stealthy than their slower, air-breathing counterparts. They are best suited to long-distance missions that quieter subs cannot carry out—protecting global fleets or bringing ballistic missiles to enemy coasts.