ISIS's Plan to Terrorize India
The attack in Dhaka earlier this month and the news of twenty-odd “missing” Indians who possibly joined Islamic State have sparked a vigorous discussion on India’s preparedness to take on the threat posed by ISIS. These incidents have led to more questions than answers on the group’s presence, appeal and capabilities in the Indian subcontinent.
This piece is a preliminary attempt to engage with some critical questions that shape how Indian security and intelligence agencies assess and address this threat in the short-to-medium term. What place does India have in Islamic State’s operational strategy? Where do competing regional organizations targeting India, like Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), lie in Islamic State’s universe of friends and foes? And how significant are the linkages between Islamic State and India’s most important homegrown terror outfit, the Indian Mujahideen (IM), today?
“Go Big, But Stay Home”
With the group taking heavy losses in its own territories in Iraq and Syria, its spokesperson Abu Muhammad al-Adnani’s message in May encouraged “lone wolves” to pursue targets within their home countries. The call was not for all believers to head over to the expanding “khilafah” (caliphate) as per usual, but urge them to prove their allegiance by staying exactly where they were and inflict pain locally.
The spate of attacks since June, namely in Istanbul, Dhaka and Medina, are in sync with this shift in narrative. As Islamic State gets more and more desperate, we will see more such attacks.
Is India ready to manage this shift?
The approach now greatly depends on (1) our understanding of Islamic State’s operational strategy for India, (2) whether Lashkar-e-Taiba and Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent are competitors or collaborators with Islamic State, and (3) in what ways India’s most active, indigenous terror group—the Indian Mujahideen—is contributing to Islamic State’s agenda.
India in ISIS’s Operations Manual
At the global level, Islamic State’s messaging concerning India focuses on Kashmir. Probing deeper by examining the recruitment video targeting India and interviews with its regional leaders in its mouthpiece Dabiq, ISIS makes threats against Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, and declarations to avenge atrocities against Muslims in Mumbai, Gujarat and Assam, along with highlighting the group’s all-encompassing hatred for the “cow-worshipping, pagan” Hindus.
As a territorial entity, Islamic State organizes its domain under “wilayat” or administrative divisions. So far, the group has declared one such division in the Indian subcontinent—Wilayat Khurasan, consisting of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Apart from this provincial unit, the group’s magazine Dabiq regularly features operations and fighters from a second area, simply termed Bengal (i.e., Bangladesh) often branded “the Khilafah’s soldiers in Bengal.” There is no specific mention of a separate administrative unit or chieftain operating from within India as yet.
Thus, in ISIS’s scheme of things, India lies vulnerably sandwiched between Wilayat Khurasan in the west and Bengal’s fighters in the east. Such a scenario facilitates guerilla attacks inside India from both sides.
In an interview to Dabiq in April, the “amir” (chief) of the Bengal faction laid out his two-step strategy for India. The first stage would require both Wilayat Khurasan and the fighters in Bengal to create “a condition of tawahhush [fear and chaos]” with the help of “existing local mujahidin.” The second stage would involve gaining territorial control of India, but only after “first getting rid of the ‘Pakistani’ and ‘Afghani’ regimes” in order to exploit their conventional capabilities.
Now, the second and final phase seems a very, very tall order. However, the first one—colluding with local elements to create chaos—is quietly underway.
Before exploring these indigenous elements, it will prove useful to study Islamic State’s attitude towards two major South Asian terrorist groups that target India: Lashkar-e-Taiba and Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent.
Contempt for AQIS and LeT
It is well-established that there is no love lost between Islamic State and Al Qaeda. Its leader Ayman al-Zawahiri is firmly branded “a leader with no real authority” in the pages of Dabiq.
As one expert recently commented, Islamic State’s “special ire for Muslims” is what sets it starkly apart from its competition. Ironically, its closest competitor shares this sentiment. A senior AQ operative in an interview to the AQIS magazine Resurgence (summer 2015 edition) slammed Islamic State for “being built on falsehood . . . working for its own interests at the expense of the greater interest of the Ummah.”
The subcontinental manifestation of AQ—Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent—is also viewed by Islamic State as colluding with Pakistan. As seen in Dabiq: “In India, they [AQ] are the allies of the nationalist Kashmir factions whose advances and withdrawals are only by the order of the apostate Pakistani army.”