After eight years of relative calm in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan turned a page in its history on May 20, when Tsai Ing-wen of the Taiwan-centric Democratic Progressive Party was sworn in as president. While it may be premature to argue that the cross-Strait relationship has now entered a new, and possibly more conflict-prone, era under Tsai, we must nevertheless keep in mind that the military option to impose unification was never obviated by Beijing, and that as its power grows that option may look increasingly inevitable. Therefore, as the Tsai administration performs the onerous act of balancing between stability in the Taiwan Strait and meeting the expectations of its China-wary citizens, it must continue to prepare against the eventuality that China could resort to force of arms to break the status quo.
Although not exhaustive, the following discussion looks at a number of areas that will be key to Taiwan’s ability to defend itself against external aggression in the coming years. This article, moreover, takes it for granted that Taiwan has experienced and internalized a doctrinal transformation whereby victory in the military sense no longer implies the defeat, if not annihilation, of its opponent, but rather focuses primarily on countering limiting scenarios while strengthening its deterrent capability against more escalatory measures by its opponent. In other words, Taiwan realizes it could not possibly challenge the People’s Liberation Army symmetrically and expect to emerge victorious; instead, the main aim of its national defense strategy is—or should be—to ensure that Beijing does not resort to force in the first place.
To do so, it will have to bolster its capabilities and preparedness in the following areas.
A layered air-defense architecture acts as the first line against kinetic action by the PLA. At present, the Taiwanese military arguably has the necessary means to protect key civilian and military infrastructure against a limited missile strike by the Second Artillery Corps, the branch of the military that controls China’s ballistic missile force, both conventional and nuclear. While Taiwan does not have—and likely never will acquire—the wherewithal to defend itself against a major, multi-vectorial and sustained missile strike against a vast array of facilities, the purpose of its air defense system is in reality far more realistic: it is primarily aimed at taking the option of coercive military strikes or leadership decapitation off the table. Its current fixed SAM arsenal of ten U.S.-made Patriot batteries (forty launchers) and ten domestically produced Tien Kung “Sky Bow” III batteries (sixty launchers) are at the forefront of such efforts, with deployments near major urban centers and other key facilities in the north and south of Taiwan. According to analysts , one Patriot unit is capable of intercepting twenty-four targets at a time with a success rate of 90 percent. Those capabilities are augmented by fixed SAM PAC-2 and TK-I/IIs, as well as sea-based Standard Missile 2 (SM-2) air defense systems, with short-range systems deployed at various military bases as a final layer of defense.
There is no doubt that China could attempt a “knockout punch” against Taiwan’s SAMs by overwhelming its air defense sites and using longer-range ballistic missiles than the SRBMs that the Patriot was designed to counter (e.g., DF-15, 16 and 21). However, such saturation attacks—between five and fifteen missiles per Patriot radar, for example—would constitute a major escalation on China’s part, as would a simultaneous or sequential air attack by the PLA Air Force (PLAAF), which would likely result in large amounts of collateral and international opprobrium. It should also be noted that the number of SRBMs needed to successfully overwhelm Taiwan’s air defense is contingent on the circular error probable (CEP) of the missiles involved. According to a recent report by the RAND Corporation, a total of forty-one ballistic missiles with a CEP of five meters would be needed to disable Taiwan’s air bases; that number would rise to 105 at a CEP of twenty-five meters and 155 at a CEP of forty meters. Besides the escalatory nature of such a massive missile strike, China has yet to demonstrate is ability to conduct simultaneous launches on such a scale.
For the incoming administration, the best strategy will be to improve upon the redundancy and survivability of SAM radar and launcher sites on Taiwan proper and offshore (outlying islands), hardening targets, and building up non-ground-fixed SAM capability (e.g., sea-based SM-3), so as to force even greater escalation should China attempt to knock out Taiwan’s air defenses, C4ISR sites, government buildings and key infrastructure, as well as naval and air bases. The key isn’t to successfully defend against the entirety of the Second Artillery Corps’ 1,000–1,200 SRBMs, hundreds of MRBMs and PLA cruise missiles and PLAAF capabilities, but rather to close the door on the option of limited strikes with the assumption that the need for escalation creates its own deterrent.