The Syria Crisis Has Evolved into an International Power Struggle

The prospect of an accidental military confrontation with Russia and its allies have never been greater

No doubt, as reflected by many voices in Washington, DC corridors of power and media, the recent American cruise missile strikes against Syria’s al-Shayrat Air Base in response to the Assad regime’s chemical attack on Khan Shaykhun in Idlib Province was hailed as the right thing to do. Moved by horrifying images of children losing their lives to the internationally banned Sarin chemical, President Trump apparently ordered the strikes to send a strong message to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad that, unlike his predecessor, he will not stand idly by when chemical red lines are crossed. But a string of statements by Trump administration officials on the heel of those strikes has created confusion over the nature and scope of American policy toward Syria. Those statements have also created a tense environment disposed to regional and international conflict.

While en route to Moscow for a high level summit, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson declared that the reign of President Assad was “coming to an end.” U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley told CNN that “there’s not any sort of option where a political solution is going to happen with Assad at the head of the regime.” White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer portrayed Assad as darker than Hitler. He said that [Hitler] didn’t use gas “on his own people the same way that Assad is doing.” Conversely, the Kremlin called the attack an “act of aggression,” and Russian prime minister Dmitry Medvedev stated that the U.S. attack on an airfield in Syria was conducted “on the verge of a military clash” with Russia. Upon arriving to Moscow, Secretary Tillerson was given the cold shoulder.

Clearly, the Trump administration has made an about face of its initial stance on Syria whereby the focus was mainly on defeating the Islamic State. Is the objective now defeating the Syrian regime as a precedent to defeating the Islamic State, as some Arab allies, such as Saudi Arabia, have been clamoring? Is the objective painting the Assad regime into a corner to press for a political solution? Or is the objective deterring the Assad regime from using unconventional weapons? Whatever this may be, the Trump administration, unless it deftly seeks out a compromise with Russia over the Syrian crisis, has set itself on a slippery slope entailing serious consequences, including a military confrontation with Russia and/or its proxies.

In fact, the Russians, along with their allies in Syria (Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Iraqi Mobilizational Forces and Hezbollah) have concluded that the American strikes have taken place as part of a plan to undermine the Syrian regime, and by extension Russian and Iranian influence in the region in general, and the country in particular. For Russia and its allies, the Trump administration, by ordering the strikes, has fired the opening salvo in what they consider a strategic and existential conflict. The strikes came in the aftermath of a series of actions that left no doubt for Russia that the United States and its allies are laying the ground for rolling back whatever influence Moscow has enhanced in the Levant, Black Sea Region and Central Asia. In response to Russia’s seizure of Crimea, the West has led a systematic campaign of sanctions against Moscow, not only penalizing its economy but also its leadership and those associated with them.

No less significant, NATO has reinforced its presence in the Black Sea, fostering an offensive capability vis-à-vis Moscow. NATO members, led by the United States, completed in February the military exercise Sea Shield 2017, which involved a total of twenty-eight thousand military men from Bulgaria, Romania, Canada, Greece, Spain, United States, Turkey and Ukraine. Exercise participants used vessels, fighter jets and submarines. The exercise was the outcome of NATO’s Tailored Forward Presence (TFP) strategy, which strives to reinforce NATO’s presence “on land, at sea and in the air” in the Black Sea region. It is intended to check Russian maneuvering in the Crimea and Black Sea region. Moreover, the United States has increased the number of its troops in Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, and completed the operational deployment of the Aegis Ashore Ballistic Missile Defense site in Deveselu, Romania.

Russian officials have perceived NATO’s buildup and recent military exercise as threatening the interest and security of Russia. Moscow responded by reinforcing its naval presence in the Black Sea and its military presence in the Crimea and the Rostov region. That reinforcement included deploying sophisticated missile defense systems and deploying nuclear-capable Iskander systems in the exclave of Kaliningrad. Ominously, Russian military aircraft buzzed the USS Porter three times as it sailed near Russian waters during the Sea Shield naval exercise.

In response to NATO’s buildup of forces, Russian president Vladimir Putin said that NATO members “are provoking us constantly and are trying to draw us into confrontation.” Alliance members are continuing their attempts to “interfere in our internal affairs in a bid to destabilize the social and political situation in Russia itself,” he said.

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