Why the World Is Giving Afghanistan Over $15 Billion
On October 5 in Brussels, seventy-five countries and over twenty international organizations agreed to continue support for the government of Afghanistan with $15.2 billion in development assistance over the next four years. This aid complements the promises of continued security assistance made earlier at the 2016 NATO Warsaw summit.
While the Taliban launched attacks in Kunduz and Helmand Provinces during the Brussels meeting, the Afghan government won donor support with commitments to reform, better governance, and improved performance. The World Bank’s most recent assessment makes clear that substantial assistance from partners will remain essential for Afghanistan through 2030, and in Brussels, donors promised to continue to provide significant but gradually declining aid on the premise that Afghanistan will become increasingly self-reliant.
Donors and partners are concerned about the Taliban’s threats to security. They also recognized the major tasks remaining to fight corruption, improve government efficiency, grow a strong private sector, create jobs for young people and to fight poverty, while strengthening security forces. But, the continued donor support for Afghanistan after almost fifteen years reflects a broad sense that Afghanistan remains a key front in a generational conflict against violent extremism, which is taking place in many countries today.
Despite the challenges, Afghanistan’s partners seem to accept that they cannot escape the conflict. In Brussels, many cited the need to find a way to peace. The communiqué welcomed the Afghan government’s willingness “to engage with all armed groups in a political process without preconditions.” But the communiqué also reiterated “we remain determined to counter all forms of terrorism and violent extremism as fundamental to international peace and stability.”
Many of us who have worked on these issues over the years conclude that the international community should not risk again leaving Afghanistan unsupported prematurely, as happened in the early 1990s. We paid dearly for that with 9/11 and the events that followed. Donor governments agree that Afghanistan should not again be a source of extremism and instability.
The government of Afghanistan is willing to partner politically and military, and the donors in Brussels accepted that it is committed to pressing ahead with reforms and improvements to governance across the board, as demonstrated by the range of serious actions, programs and plans discussed. Secretary of State Kerry argued in his Brussels remarks “year by year, our shared effort -- one of the largest international coalitions ever assembled and maintained over a sustained period of time – is, in fact, yielding encouraging dividends.”
A Complex and Difficult Mission
There is no question that the United States and its allies need partners in Afghanistan’s volatile region. Some understandably ask if it is worthwhile to continue the effort. The United States has contributed dearly in Afghanistan, with over 2,300 soldiers killed, many thousands seriously injured, and over $800 billion in resources spent. Afghanistan’s other partners have also contributed much.
This has been a great diplomatic, development and military commitment and a complex mission. The results have been mixed. We have seen some amazing improvements in education, health, life expectancy, access to telecommunications and media, infrastructure, etc. Yet, efforts to achieve peace have not borne sufficient fruit. Relations under the former president of Afghanistan were difficult in recent years. The international coalition consistently faced a very challenging dual played role by Pakistan, which greatly hindered progress regarding the Taliban and related groups.
Since the drawdown of international troops, the Taliban and other extremist groups have had successes against Afghan government security forces. The local economy and social indicators suffered severely from the loss of foreign military and aid spending, and many headed to Europe. Corruption remains a serious problem. Division and paralysis in local politics slowed and burdened government effectiveness.
Given the growing security challenges posed by the Taliban and others, President Obama decided to freeze the U.S. troop drawdown and allow more active U.S. military support for the Afghan military. This has helped stabilize the security situation, but the Taliban attacks over the past week underscore the challenges.
The next president will need to consider the U.S. approach for the coming years. U.S. military and financial assistance, and that of our partners, is more modest than it was earlier. The several billion dollars a year from the international community should be sustainable and that aid remains critical for the Afghan government.
A number of former U.S. ambassadors, ISAF commanders, senior officials and scholars with Afghan experience have been working together to develop assessments of the situation and advice for the next President. In September, we recommended that the way forward should be an enduring partnership between Afghanistan and its international partners, based on mutual commitment over the next decade to build stability, better governance, and a stronger economy.