The Buzz

America's Missile Defense Systems: The Ultimate Paper Tiger?

On the morning of January 31, 2018, an Aegis Ashore missile battery based in Kauai, Hawaii cued onto an approaching intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). The installation launched an SM-3 Block IIA missile to intercept the IRBM at speeds over fifteen times the speed of sound.

The Standard Missile 3 Block IIA was devised to allow U.S. Navy destroyers and cruisers to shoot down short- to intermediate-range ballistic missiles at ranges of up to 1,350 miles while they are soaring above the Earth’s atmosphere in their midcourse phase. According to the Missile Defense Agency, this marked the first occasion in which the missile was launched from a land-based Aegis Ashore battery, and the first time it used both space- and land-based sensors to cue the intercept.

However, the MDA was also obliged to report that the SM-3 failed to hit the oncoming target—the second failure in a row out of three Block IIA tests conducted since February 2017.

Fortunately, of course, this was a test, and not a real attack by a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead. It posed no more threat than the false missile alert in Hawaii on January 13 triggered by a confused employee.

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An MDA statement explained that despite being “disappointed” by the result, the test had still provided useful data for improving the effectiveness of the system and “demonstrated an increase in the effective range of the overall Ballistic Missile Defense System.”

As it stands, both the SM-3 and THAAD ballistic-missile defense systems, as well as Patriot PAC-3 surface-to-air missiles, are already actively deployed to defend South Korea, Japan and U.S. islands in the Pacific from North Korean missile attack.

While the MDA has yet to release details as to what caused latest failure, annual reports released in January (prior to the latest test) by the Pentagon’s Department of Testing & Evaluation reveal that it has “decreased confidence” in the reliability of the Block IIA missiles, while even the more favorably tested THAAD system is showing “worsened deficiencies” in operator training and system reliability.

A Mixed Report Card for Ballistic-Missile Defense

Not all of the news in the DOT&E reports is negative. Notably, the testing department states that the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system “has demonstrated the capability” to defend the entire continental United States from longer-range and harder-to-hit Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs)—at least from a limited attack using less sophisticated types of such weapons. Though the GMD has a slightly spottier testing record than the SM-3 series, a successful test interception of an ICBM target in July 2017 has increased confidence that it would actually work.

Note, however, that GMD has yet to be tested against a “complex” ballistic target that deploys decoys and/or multiple warheads to confuse and overwhelm defensive missiles. Most experts believe that any country capable of developing an ICBM in the first place will also have the capacity to eventually develop the technology for complex missiles.

Fortunately, both THAAD and the Aegis system were tested against complex medium- and intermediate-range missiles in 2017, and targeting radars successfully discriminated between real reentry vehicles and decoys.

However, two of the four successful tests performed by the Aegis involved terminal-phase interceptions of ballistic missiles by SM-6 Dual missiles, which have much shorter range and are currently only deployed onboard ships at sea. While they will provide vital terminal-phase defense for naval forces and are effective in antiaircraft and even ground-attack roles, they have limited applicability to regional defense against ballistic missiles.

The other two successful tests included interceptions by a Block IIA on February 2017 (which you can see in this video) and a “Threat Update” version of an earlier Block IB–model missile in October.

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