Beware of Kim Jong Un's Diplomatic Tricks
According to Kim Jong-un, the centerpiece of his intended negotiations with President Donald Trump is a newfound willingness to stall or even disarm his nuclear program in exchange for satisfactory guarantees of security. Yet, there are no obvious ways in which Trump could offer any assurances or concessions at the talks he has agreed to hold that would meet Kim’s security needs. The coldness of this reality, undoubtedly fully known by Kim, should cast doubt onto the sincerity of his request for a bilateral summit to start with.
At the most basic level, it seems unlikely that Kim could ever accept a purely verbal or implicit reassurance in exchange for denuclearization. Kim will have learned this lesson by watching the fate of Muammar el-Qaddafi in Libya, who unilaterally renounced his nuclear program in 2003 in response to the American-led intervention into Iraq. Qaddafi had hoped that better relationships with the West would reduce the chances of it intervening against him militarily. This gambit failed in 2011 when a rebellion erupted in Libya and numerous states provided aid, arms and even airstrikes to assist the rebels against him.
A more concrete option for Kim might be to request that the United States officially recognize North Korea as falling within China’s sphere of influence and formally pledge that it will never invade. This was the approach adopted with Cuba in 1963, when the Soviet Union consented to remove its missiles in exchange for, among other things, a guarantee that the United States would not invade Cuba again. Yet, this solution would be anathema for Kim because it would mean placing the fate of his regime into the hands of an increasingly distant China, which could not be trusted to treat North Korean national interests as its own. The fear of being treated this way is part of what left Fidel Castro, who was excluded from the negotiations over Cuba, spitting with rage. It is also unclear how this would represent a big enough change from the status quo—in which China currently offers protection to North Korea as part of their Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance—to satisfy Kim’s security needs. The idea would probably be unpalatable for the Americans too because it would require encouraging an already assertive China to take an even greater role in the region. Finally, the Chinese would likely oppose the proposal because it would mean binding themselves yet tighter to an unreliable rogue regime that has shown repeated recalcitrance in following their directions and whose isolationist belligerence stands increasingly at odds with their own increasingly internationalist approach to foreign affairs.
An alternative could be for Kim to repeat his country’s past demand for the Western demilitarization of the Korean Peninsula. This might include a withdrawal of American troops and equipment from South Korea and an agreement to halt American and South Korean military exercises in the region. This would be a problem for the United States, however, because it would mean diluting its presence in a region that houses some of the world’s largest economic powers and most dangerous potential military flashpoints. Yet, even if Trump agreed to this request, it would offer scant reassurance for Kim because the United States is capable of deploying its forces into the region at short notice. This is based upon the nearby presence of the U.S. Seventh Fleet and American military bases in Japan, Guam, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore and Hawaii, along with the recent creation of mobilizations centers in the mainland United States that are dedicated to rapidly redeploying U.S. forces to hotspots when needed.